1. Current price: 0.5257 USDT (-7.01%)
2. Trend & Technical indicators
• 15-minute frame: Price is testing MA(7) at the 0.5235 area (acting as short-term support). RSI(6) at 60.28 (beginning to enter the overbought area), OBV decreases slightly by about -78 million, indicating selling pressure is still present.
• 1-hour frame: MA(7) at 0.5198 becomes resistance. RSI(6) is at neutral (46.73), MACD is slightly positive (0.0039), OBV decreases by -58 million. The price may bounce down from this area if it does not break through MA.
• 4-hour frame: MA(7) is significantly above the price at 0.5492 (strong resistance). RSI(6) drops to 29.15 (oversold), MACD is negative (-0.0245), OBV decreases sharply by more than -420 million, confirming a medium-term downtrend.
• Daily frame: MA(7) is at a high of 0.8240 (extremely strong resistance). RSI(6) at 33.54 (oversold), MACD is slightly negative (-0.0229), particularly OBV has started to increase slightly by +57 million, showing a bullish divergence – an early signal to monitor.
3. Trading strategy
A. Futures – Prefer Short (Probability 65-70%)
• Entry point: 0.5190 – 0.5290
• Take profit: 0.5000 or 0.4800
• Stop loss: 0.5350
• Reason: Price is below the MA lines, strong selling volume, RSI has not recovered – confirming the continuation of the downtrend.
B. – Long scenario (Probability 30-35%)
• Entry point: 0.5510 – 0.5550 (if breakout of MA(7) on the 4-hour frame along with increasing OBV)
• Take profit: 0.5800
• Stop loss: 0.5300
• Reason: RSI is oversold, OBV on the daily frame has slight bullish divergence – needs confirmation before entering a trade.
4. Risk management
• R:R ratio: Minimum 1:2
• Capital per trade: No more than 2% of total capital
• Monitor: BTC volatility, unusual breakout volume, Binance exchange news
Warning: RSI is oversold on a larger frame, but there is no clear reversal signal yet. Limit early Long positions until confirmed by breakout + volume.
Summary:
✅ Prioritize Short strategy according to the 4-hour and 1-day trend.
⚠️ Long should only be considered if a real breakout occurs along with a significant increase in OBV.
