On June 2, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was $104,962.28, up 0.54% from the previous day, fluctuating recently in the $103,000 to $105,500 range. The total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies reached $3.27 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 64.89%, setting a recent high. From a technical perspective, the daily level is under pressure from the MA50 moving average, but the MA120 moving average around $103,000 provides strong support. The 4-hour chart shows the Bollinger Bands moving downwards, and the MACD indicator shows divergence, suggesting that short-term fluctuations may continue.
In terms of macroeconomics, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may signal a rate cut in the June 19 interest rate decision, with expectations of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year. If realized, this will inject liquidity into cryptocurrencies. The U.S. Congress will review the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act on June 10. If a regulatory framework is clarified, it may boost market confidence. In addition, the European Central Bank may cut rates by 25 basis points on June 5, which is favorable for risk assets.
In terms of institutional dynamics, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings have exceeded 600,000 coins, valued at approximately $56.11 billion. The number of whale addresses holding 100-10,000 BTC has increased to 17,889, indicating that institutions continue to accumulate coins. Experts are generally bullish, with Standard Chartered predicting a target price of $200,000 by the end of the year, and Fundstrat and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicting $250,000.
For operational suggestions, short-term traders can lightly position long orders in the $103,000-$105,000 range, with a stop loss set below $102,000; if it breaks above $105,500, they can chase long positions with a target of $108,000. Long-term holders are advised to hold spot positions and can gradually increase their holdings as prices pull back below $100,000, aiming to hold until the end of 2025 or the halving cycle in April 2026. It should be noted that the current Fear and Greed Index is at 76, indicating extreme greed, and caution is needed against profit-taking sell-offs in the short term.
The 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the United States has entered the Senate review stage. If passed, it will clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets; China plans to implement new anti-money laundering regulations in January 2025, bringing cryptocurrency transactions under supervision, with a focus on cracking down on large over-the-counter transactions; the Federal Reserve's June decision and the non-farm data released on June 2 may affect market volatility.
Risk Warning: In terms of policy risk, regulatory differences among countries may lead to volatility, such as changes in the U.S. SEC's attitude towards ETFs or tightening of regulations in China; in terms of technical risk, short-term prices may experience sharp fluctuations due to insufficient liquidity, and caution is needed regarding false breakouts at the resistance level of $105,500; in terms of macro risk, if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts or global economic recession worsens, it may lead to a pullback.
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture. Short-term volatility is intensifying, but the medium to long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors should operate flexibly within the $103,000-$105,500 range according to their risk preferences, with a focus on the June Federal Reserve decision, U.S. regulatory legislation, and non-farm data. In the long term, Bitcoin still has the potential to reach $180,000-$250,000, supported by institutional accumulation, the halving cycle, and loose monetary policy.
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