If the market rises despite most traders losing, then there is a strong entity benefiting and buying during the collapse of others.

Net closing of losing trades (CLD) for Bitcoin on Binance

The chart illustrates the volume of trades that were forcibly closed due to losses, especially for long positions. Forced closure occurs when the account cannot cover the losses, leading the platform to automatically close the position.

🧠 Key observations:

  • Significant pressure on optimistic traders with financial leverage from 2024 to 2025, billions were lost from buying trades due to large losses.

  • The price rises despite the closures; Bitcoin's price continued to increase, indicating that the market is accumulating from the losers.

  • Violent declines = greater upward opportunities; the largest closure waves occurred before strong upward launches.

  • The scarcity of short position closures means that traders betting on price drops have not faced significant losses, either because they were cautious or because the market did not move strongly against them. This indicates that the pressure was primarily directed towards the optimists, while sellers have remained out of danger so far.

1. Deep red shading

Represents a series of forced closures of long positions during 2024-2025 with cumulative values between 120- and 360- million dollars. This means that the market was loaded with high buying leverage; with every liquidation wave, the market is reprogrammed, and new demand is injected at the lows. This negative accumulation often precedes a price rebound as the forced selling pressure ends with the margin expiration.

2. Small white peaks

Indicates a clear scarcity in short position liquidations; this means that leveraged sellers have not yet faced sufficient 'punishment'. If the price rises vertically after this phase, we may witness a rapid and sharp 'squeeze' of short positions due to a collective forced closure.

3. The black line (Bitcoin price)

Rising from around 40,000 to over 100,000 despite massive liquidation waves for buying. This indicates the entry of immediate liquidity (Spot) compensating for derivatives losses, showing that fear through liquidation cannot stop an upward trend supported by real cash.

4. Precise green bars

Represents the daily 'cumulative liquidation' (CLD). Its remaining low indicates relative balance between both sides of the market, but any large and sudden green jump is considered a warning of liquidity eruption that could reverse the trend within hours.

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