The future market trend of Sui (SUI) token will be influenced by multiple factors. Based on the latest developments and fundamental analysis, it can be summarized into the following key directions:
1. Short-term Bearish Factors: Token unlocking and market selling pressure
1. Large-scale Token Unlocking
- June 1, 2025: SUI unlocks 44.47 million tokens (valued around $140-150 million), accounting for 1.3% of the circulation.
- Total Unlocking in June: SUI's total unlocking amount reached $206.33 million in June, making it one of the tokens with the highest unlocking volume for the month.
- Potential Impact: Short-term may increase market selling pressure, especially when market sentiment is weak, leading to price fluctuations. Historical data shows that high unlocks are often accompanied by price corrections (e.g., SUI fell 36% after the March 2024 unlock).
2. Regulatory Shock Amplifies Volatility
- On June 1, the SEC issued new regulations requiring cryptocurrency derivatives platforms to complete registration within 180 days, causing drastic fluctuations in funding rates for mainstream coins (e.g., SUI's funding rate plummeted from +0.03% to -0.15%).
- Market concerns about compliance on centralized platforms may spread to emerging tokens like SUI, increasing short-term uncertainty.
2. Medium to Long-term Bullish Support: Technological Upgrades and Ecological Expansion
1. Expectations of Institutional Fund Inflows
- CME Inclusion Benchmark Index (Effective June 2): The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has added a new cryptocurrency index including SUI, covering over 96% of the investable crypto market capitalization, providing institutional investors with transparent pricing tools. This move may attract more regulated funds, enhancing SUI's liquidity premium.
2. Technical Advantages and Ecological Growth
- High-performance Public Chain Positioning: Sui excels in DEX liquidity and low transaction costs compared to competitors (like Aptos) due to its parallel processing of transactions and local fee market mechanisms.
- TVL Breaks $1 Billion: DeFi protocols within the ecosystem (such as Navi and Cetus) have driven a significant increase in locked assets, indicating enhanced user stickiness.
- Enterprise-level Application Implementation: The Enoki platform facilitates enterprises connecting to the Sui public chain, with native USDC from Circle enhancing payment and cross-chain capabilities.
3. Security Incident Remediation Boosts Confidence
- The Sui ecosystem liquidity platform Cetus successfully recovered funds stolen by hackers on May 31 and plans to fully restart on June 2, alleviating the trust crisis caused by previous security vulnerabilities.
3. Long vs. Short Comparison and Market Sentiment
| Influencing Factors | Direction | Impact Period | Intensity |
| Token Unlocking | Bearish | Short-term (1 week) | ★★★ |
| CME Index Inclusion | Bullish | Mid-term | ★★★☆ |
| SEC Regulatory New Rules | Bearish | Short-term | ★★☆ |
| Ecological TVL Growth | Bullish | Long-term | ★★★★ |
| Increase in Institutional Holdings | Bullish | Mid-term | ★★★ |
- 4. Price Prediction and Market Outlook
1. Short-term (within 1 month): Unlocking selling pressure and regulatory uncertainty may suppress prices. If the overall market (like BTC) stabilizes, SUI may fluctuate in the $1.2-$1.5 range.
2. Mid-term (3-6 months):
- The effects of institutional index inclusion are gradually becoming apparent, combined with the launch of ecological applications (such as gaming device SuiPlay0x1), which may drive price recovery.
- If the Smart Contract Platform (SCP) market reaches $1.1 trillion, VanEck predicts SUI could hit $16 by the end of the year (current price around $1.5).
3. Long-term (over 6 months):
- The 52.2% long-term lock-up design in the token economic model (unlocking after 2030) may alleviate inflationary pressure, but the actual execution risk of the unlocking commitment should be monitored.
- If technical scalability continues to be validated (e.g., million TPS), it is expected to support market capitalization entering the top ten.
5. Investment Recommendations
- Cautious in the short term: Monitor market absorption after the unlocking at the beginning of June to avoid buying on the left side.
- Mid-term Positioning: If the price falls below $1.2, consider building positions in batches and closely track institutional holding data after the CME index launch.
- Long-term Anchoring of Ecology: Monitor TVL growth rate, the number of active addresses on-chain, and progress in corporate collaborations (e.g., integration of Animoca Brands gaming ecosystem).