Capital is rotating. Retail is asleep. Bonds are flashing signals. Something *big* is brewing beneath the surface — and this week might be the catalyst that cracks it wide open.
Here’s what the smart money is watching (and why you should too):
• Nonfarm Payrolls – Friday
Expectations sit at +130K jobs. Last month smashed it with +177K.
→ A soft print? Rate cut hopes ignite.
→ A hot print? Yields spike, rate cuts get punted. Watch the bond market react in real time.
• Earnings Season – Over
S\&P 500 crushed it: 13.4% EPS growth vs. 11% expected.
→ If Q2 matches pace, the valuation bears get quiet real fast. Upside risk for equities opens up. Bigly.
• \$TLT Inflows – \$1.8B
Largest inflow of *any* ETF last week.
→ Positioning for falling yields? This could be the bond rally beginning. Market whispering: the top in rates is in.
• 5-Year Treasury Auction
Strongest foreign demand **in history**.
→ Global appetite for U.S. credit is surging. This keeps yields in check despite massive supply.
• Japanese Equities – \$12B Outflows
Largest *weekly* outflow ever.
→ Is that capital rotating into U.S. stocks? Watch \$SPX and \$QQQ for strength this week.
• Money Market Funds – \$19B Outflow
Cash is finally starting to trickle out — \$6.94T still parked on the sidelines.
→ If this accelerates, risk assets could go vertical.
• Retail Flow – Lowest YTD
Retail traders have left the chat.
→ Positioning is cautious. Fuel is dry powder if sentiment shifts quickly.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow – 3.8% Q2 Growth
That’s hot.
→ If that holds, the “soft landing” might be more than a fantasy. Could reshape the whole macro narrative.
**Bottom Line:**
Global capital is *on the move*.
Yields are teetering. Growth is resilient.
And one data surprise could flip the script.
Eyes on: \$SPX \$QQQ \$IWM \$TLT
This week might *set
the tone* for the rest of 2025. Don’t blink.
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