🔍 Current situation
• ETH price is fluctuating around 2.507 USDT, showing signs of short-term technical recovery, but the overall medium to long-term trend remains bearish.
• Daily and 4h RSI is approaching the oversold area, but OBV (money flow) is still negative – indicating that the current rebounds lack strong support.
📌 Proposed trading strategy
🔸 1. Spot trading (Medium-term / Long-term)
• No recommendation to buy currently, because:
• MA25 and MA7 on the daily timeframe both show that the downtrend has not stopped.
• Price has not retested the strong support area around 2.060–2.100 (MA99 daily).
• Safe strategy:
• Entry: 2.080–2.100 (when price hits MA99 daily)
• TP: 2.400–2.550
• SL: 1.950
• ✅ Success probability: ~70% if there is a reversal pattern with increased volume.
• ⚠️ Note: Wait for confirmation signals (reversal candle + increased volume) before buying.
🔸 2. Futures trading (Short-term / Leverage)
Short-term Long scenario (probability ~60%)
• Condition: Price breaks above MA7 on the 1h timeframe (2.502,60) with RSI(6) > 50
• Entry: 2.505–2.510
• TP: 2.550 (near MA25 daily)
• SL: 2.490
• ✅ RR ratio: 2:1 – suitable for scalping.
Short scenario if unable to break MA7/MA25 (probability ~30%)
• Entry: 2.514–2.520 (MA7 on the 4h timeframe + strong resistance)
• TP: 2.400 – 2.300
• SL: 2.535
• ⚠️ High risk if breaking out above MA25 on the daily timeframe.
⚠️ Warning
• The market is heavily dependent on BTC volatility; if BTC breaks below 104,700, ETH is likely to drop to the 2,300 – 2,100 range.
• Short-term trading must adhere to strict SL – do not hold positions overnight if BTC trend is unclear.
