This week's key conclusions precede.
1. This Thursday (06/05) the number of unemployment claims will be announced, and on Friday (06/06) non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released. It is worth paying attention to whether the new tariff policies implemented in April and May actually impact economic data.
2. Last week, the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tax measures need to be revoked, but it has now been temporarily suspended by an appellate court, adding some uncertainty to the tariff issue.
3. The options volatility remains high, and the price has also broken historical highs. In the short term, we can pay attention to whether the liquidity liquidation point above $113,000 is broken, while below we can monitor the high turnover area at $102,000 and the key support area at $92,000.
- This Thursday (06/05) the number of unemployment claims will be announced, and on Friday (06/06) non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released. This non-farm payroll is the first announcement after the impact of tariffs, so the related data is particularly noteworthy.
- The U.S. International Trade Court ruled last week to revoke several tariff measures initiated by Trump. Although the ruling was temporarily stayed by an appellate court last Friday, the uncertainty brought back by the tariff issue has begun to increase in the already sensitized market sentiment.
- Sosovalue data shows that the fear and greed index has slightly decreased. The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to grow. Following the price breakthrough to new highs, ETF has begun to show accelerated capital outflow.
- The CME futures prices have no gaps in the short term. From the perspective of volume distribution, the current price is at the VAH since November. There are two strong support ranges below, one is $92,000~$95,000, formed by the POC since November and the VAH from the March decline, expected to be a key point during a short-term pullback; the other falls between $80,000~$84,000, mainly composed of the VAH since 2024, the VAL since November, and the POC since the February decline.
- Bitfinex long leverage has maintained a continuous reduction for one month.
- The liquidation map data shows that shorts have begun to accumulate significant liquidation liquidity around $113,000, while the liquidation liquidity for longs below is also accumulating significantly at $102,000. Therefore, these two points should be strong attraction points for short-term price trends.
- Options volatility has decreased, and market sentiment has started to decline; the ∆25 Skew data has significantly dropped, indicating a bearish outlook for future prices.
