📎 General Trend:
Bitcoin is trending down slightly on the hourly timeframe. Short-term analyses have shown persistent selling momentum, as the price closed below the short-term moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading around 40–45 (below the 50 level), indicating negative momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Initial support is determined near $106,800–107,000, followed by critical levels at $105,800 and then $105,200. Breaking these levels could open the way for a decline towards $104,000 or lower. On the flip side, a resistance range of ~107,500–108,000 (corresponding to the short-term averages) forms an initial barrier, with the psychological level ~109,700–110,000 being the most significant current resistance.
🔍 Technical Indicators:
The RSI (14 setting) on the hourly frame reveals a level below 50, indicating a short-term bearish bias. There is a convergence towards a negative signal in the MACD on the short frame (histogram close to zero with a negative slope). The 50 and 200 moving averages on daily and weekly frames remain bullish, supporting the overall upward trend, but the short-term averages (MA7 and MA25) are currently above the price.
📊 Candlesticks and Chart Patterns:
Some daily and four-hour candles show long lower shadows near ~$107K, indicating buying demand at support. These candles represent 'hammer' patterns or signs of a temporary halt in the decline. A clear pattern (such as head and shoulders or double top) has not yet formed, but we observe a tightening range of volatility (Bollinger contraction), with the price showing a pattern resembling a contracting triangle in the short term. Technical analyses have indicated the formation of what is known as an 'ascending wedge' pattern on the 4-hour frame and its support break, accelerating the recent price decline.
📌Future Scenarios:
📈 Bullish:
If the price reclaims a breakout above resistance at ~109.7K$ with high trading volume, it could drive the price up towards 111–112K$ in the short term. In the best-case scenario, the rise could extend to ~120K$ if the medium-term bullish momentum continues.
📉 Bearish:
In the event of breaking the support around ~$105K (especially below ~$103K), the decline may continue towards 102–100K$ (important psychological and technical support levels). Further decline below 100K$ could open the door for a larger extension towards ~97–98K$ as a later stage.
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