Has it dropped enough? It has dropped nearly 30% before and later recovered. This time looks more like a 'normal correction,' not a complete collapse.
Watch the line at 85,000. If it can stabilize above that, there is a good chance for a rebound. Below, there's a 'golden pit' at 74,000 to 78,000; if it really drops there, many will feel it's cheap and want to buy companies like MicroStrategy. Additionally, ETF funds have recently bought more despite the drop, indicating that large capital isn't fleeing and remains optimistic.
There are whispers from the U.S. saying they want to treat Bitcoin as 'national reserves' and buy it like gold. If that happens, it would be a huge positive. The Federal Reserve might have to 'inject liquidity' again next year, stop taking money, or even lower interest rates, which could lead to more money flowing into places like Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin tends to surge about six months after a 'halving,' and now that time is approaching.
Why could it continue to drop?
Trump said he wants to raise tariffs, which could trigger a trade war that the global market fears, and Bitcoin will also be affected. If prices rise too sharply, the Federal Reserve may not dare to inject liquidity, or they might tighten further, which would reduce Bitcoin's upward momentum. If it fails to hold above 74,000, panic could intensify, with a risk of dropping to 52,000 to 60,000 (though the probability currently seems low).
Core viewpoints
In the short term, the chances for a rebound seem greater; there's a 60% chance that technically it has hit a bottom, with large institutions bottom-fishing, and policies potentially offering favorable conditions.
The key points to watch are whether Bitcoin can stabilize at 85,000, when/whether the Federal Reserve will inject liquidity, and how U.S. policies (especially tariffs and buying coins) will be implemented.
The long-term bull market logic hasn't broken; the trend is still there. This drop feels more like a 'halftime break' rather than 'the game is over.'
Want to make a quick profit in the short term? You can try a small position now, but you must set a stop-loss; for example, if it drops below 80,000, you should recognize the loss as the risk is high.
Want to hold long-term? *If it really drops to the 'golden pit' at 74,000 to 78,000, you can gradually buy a little bit, but don't go all in at once.
It's also fine to watch more and act less. *Keep a close eye on the three key signals mentioned above: 85,000, Federal Reserve liquidity injection, and U.S. policies. Wait for clearer directions before taking action to be more stable.
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