### Current Market Context
- Price Action: Trading at $0.5762 (June 1, 2025) after a 40.4% drop from its $1.37 all-time high (May 31). Extreme volatility with 24h range of $0.524–$0.966.
- Liquidations: $4.8M futures liquidations triggered during recent crash.
- Sentiment: Mixed technicals (14 bearish vs. 2 bullish indicators), Fear & Greed at 56 (Greed).
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### Critical Price Levels
- Bullish Confirmations:
- Breakout Zone: $0.4340 (falling wedge breakout level from May 7)
- Uptrend Target: $0.6537 (wedge projection)
- Bearish Supports:
- Primary Support: $0.3828 – Loss invalidates bullish structure
- Panic Zone: $0.3530 – Breach risks 20%+ drop to $0.28
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### Technical & Fundamental Drivers
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish falling wedge breakout requires close above $0.4340 to resume uptrend.
- Bearish risks: All moving averages (3-21 day) show "SELL" signals, RSI at 47.07 (neutral but declining).
- Fundamentals:
- Catalyst: 5M WCT airdrop to Solana users (Phantom/Jupiter/Backpack wallets) – may boost demand.
- Risk: Only 18.6% of 1B supply circulating – future unlocks could pressure price.
- Volume: $1.44B 24h volume (395% of market cap) signals speculative interest.
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### Trade Signals & Scenarios
#### BULLISH (30% Probability)
- Trigger: Hold $0.3828 + break $0.4340 with volume
- Entry: Long
- Targets: $0.4843 → $0.6537
- Stop-Loss: $0.3750 (3% below support)
#### BEARISH (50% Probability)
- Trigger: Close below $0.3530
- Entry: Short
- Targets: $0.28–$0.30 (April 2025 lows)
- Stop-Loss: $0.3600
#### RANGE-BOUND (20% Probability)
- Action: Fade bounces between $0.3530–$0.4340 with tight stops.
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### Risk Management
- Leverage: ≤5x (30-day volatility: 34.3%)
- Position Size: 1–2% of capital
- Profit-Taking:
- Take 50% at $0.4340
- Take 50% at $0.4843
- Stops:
- Aggressive longs: $0.3750
- Swing trades: $0.3450
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### Key Monitoring Tools
1. Airdrop Impact: Track Solana wallet activity via Dune Analytics.
2. Supply Unlocks: Monitor TokenUnlocks.app for inflation risks.
3. Automation: Set TradingView alerts for $0.3530/$0.4340 breaks (backtest with 4H RSI >60 + volume spikes).
> Final Warning: High volatility asset – verify levels live and test strategies in demo before deploying capital. Updates likely as $0.3530-$0.4340 range resolves.
Always trade with stops. This is not financial advice.
