Retail investors charge under the Federal Reserve's knife! $BTC giant whales retreat, hiding a deadly trap!
Any rebound without volume is just a trick; even MACD underwater cramps can't save the shrinking bearish trend—Bitcoin is currently a sickly asset, relying on real cash to survive!
1. Three Red Lights on the Technical Front
1. Cliff in Volume (Fatal Injury): Actual transaction 6.32 million vs estimated 10.3 million—close to a 40% decrease, unable to reach the ankle of the 5-day average volume (10.37 million), further crushed by the 10-day average volume (13.84 million). On-chain data shows that net outflow from exchanges has suddenly dropped by 45%, and the main forces are lying flat; the rebound is purely retail self-indulgence.
2. MACD False Action (High-risk Signal): Green bar 385.4 seems to slow the decline, but DIF (-40.4) and DEA (-597.1) have deeply submerged into negative territory. Historical pattern: weak golden cross underwater ≈ continuation of decline; three days without significant volume breaking the zero axis is all bubbles.
3. Moving Average Strangulation (Clear Pressure): Volume moving average dead cross locks in the bearish trend, with price MA forming a high-pressure wall at 105K-103K (the morning surge to 104K followed by a quick drop is solid evidence).
2. Three Knives on the News Front!
1. Federal Reserve's Strike: Hawkish remarks last night say inflation won't drop and there will be no interest rate cuts, causing the dollar to surge and siphon off 350 million in crypto funds.
2. ETF Infighting: BlackRock holds over 310,000 BTC, but Grayscale sold off 15,000 coins in a single day (a new high for the month), with institutions fiercely tearing at each other.
3. Whale Withdrawal: Activity from addresses with 10K+ has sharply decreased by 65%, and retail investors' bottom-fishing frenzy has become a contrary indicator.
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