Price breaks support, whales intervene to protect the market; is the market still safe?
The recent trend of Bitcoin has shown a familiar deviation structure again.
A reversal pattern similar to April is reappearing, but this time, both bulls and bears are more extreme in their attitudes.
01｜Are correction signals starting to strengthen?
DMI shows a bearish crossover
RSI continues to decline without stopping
Price breaks $91,000, short-term sentiment turns sharply
Although the long-term trend still leans towards upward, the shadow of 'death cross' is beginning to emerge.
02｜Macroeconomic variables are entering, and the impact is being underestimated
This round of volatility is not triggered by internal factors in the crypto circle, but rather by policy adjustments in the 'beautiful country' causing panic in financial markets.
Tax news triggers fluctuations in risk-averse capital
US stocks and Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing net outflows simultaneously
Liquidation amounts briefly exceed $1 billion
This is not just a technical issue; emotional fluctuations and policy risks are deeply intertwined.
03｜Whales vs Retail Investors: A psychological battle is unfolding
Data shows:
Contract whales are firmly defending the psychological level of $100,000
The spot main force is 'waiting for an opportunity' with an order at $120,000
Whoever retreats first loses.
This is a game of 'belief', but it may also be a 'bull trap'.
04｜Where is the key support level?
From the FIB structure, if $102,000 is lost, Bitcoin may directly test:
Support in the 0.786 area: $10,215.3
If the rebound is weak, we will look towards the next resistance area: $105,937 – $107,615
The closing of this month's line will become a watershed for bulls and bears.
Written at the end
The market is not dead, but blind optimism is the real risk.
True investors understand 'finding structure amidst volatility'.
Whether the next round of market starts or not depends not on popularity, but on capital flows and monthly closing.
If you think this wave of movement is similar to April, don't forget that the last surge started from a false adjustment.
