The 12.20% growth recorded in May once again confirms the seasonality of Bitcoin, as can be seen from the “Bitcoin Monthly Returns” table. Looking at the data, we note that the months of April and May are historically among the strongest, with average returns of +34% and +20% respectively.
From 2023 onwards, a return to growth is observed, with May confirming its positive trend in both 2024 and 2025. The table also signals weakness in the summer months and in September, suggesting that any long positions can be maintained until June, to then lighten them and return to purchases in the window between September and October.
Bitcoin scenario on the daily chart
By analyzing the phase of uncertainty and retracement of the price of Bitcoin on the daily chart, we provide an overview of the bullish movement that began from the April low at 74,500 USD. The rise was built with a series of swings and phases of congestion, creating a healthy trend without excesses.
The uptrend is highlighted by a dynamic trendline, recently broken to the downside. Dynamic trendlines are less reliable than static ones, however the breakdown is a signal that should still be considered.
Bitcoin's key support levels
Yesterday, BTC closed the fourth consecutive red candle, tilting the short-term trend and generating a corrective leg in an uptrend. The scenario therefore confirms indecision, with BTC testing the support area between 102,700 and 103,200 USD. This bearish phase has a cyclical level and a time frame of a few more days, so a drop below 100,000 USD could also be seen.
In case of a break of this level too, the vector supports of the main movement (April low – ATH) would come into play. The first vector level is located in the USD 97,700 area, while the main support is at USD 93,300.
