• Position: Sell (SELL) when the price retraces to weak resistance area
• Entry: Wait to SELL in the 0.0565 – 0.0590 area (on the edge of the Kumo cloud, coinciding with Volume Profile and previous sideways price area)
• Stop Loss: Above 0.0615 (beyond the cloud peak + old accumulation area)
• Take Profit 1: 0.0500 (short-term bottom has been tested again)
• Take Profit 2: 0.0450 – 0.0420 (extended bottom area with thick liquidity)
• Expected R:R ratio: 2:1 to 3:1 if not stopped out by false break
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📊 Technical Analysis and Strategic Argument:
1. Price Structure (Market Structure):
• The price has been in a clear medium-term downtrend since the beginning of 2025, with continuously lower peaks and bottoms.
• The recent phase is a choppy accumulation area, the price has tested the bottom and bounced back but could not break the upper cloud resistance → risk of bull trap.
2. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo:
• The current price is still below the Kumo cloud, and the future cloud continues to thicken and turn red → bearish pressure still dominates.
• Chikou Span is completely below the candles → no reversal signal.
• The price's inability to break above the cloud indicates a weak recovery trend, suitable for SELL when the price retraces.
3. MACD:
• The two MACD lines are crossing below the 0 axis but momentum is weakening → warning of weak recovery, easily 'extinguished' if there is no sudden increase in volume.
• The histogram is narrowing → losing momentum trend, could be an opportunity to wait for SELL.
4. Order Flow & Volume Profile:
• Clear distribution area at 0.058 – 0.065, with huge volume (7.5B and 3.5B), but it does not help the price maintain its upward momentum → overwhelming selling pressure.
• Strong negative delta at the most recent bottom (-1.068B and -146M) → indicates that selling pressure still dominates absolutely.
• The POC of the volume profile area is higher than the current price area → buyers are trapped at the high region.
5. Current Price Behavior:
• The price has tested the old bottom around 0.0500 twice but bounced back weakly.
• The bounce back is not strong, unable to break the nearest peak, combined with the cloud resistance above → a good opportunity to sell according to the main trend when the price retraces.
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📌 Summary of the argument:
ZK is in a medium-term downtrend and has been continuously rejected at the Kumo cloud area. The large volume areas all indicate distribution and trap buyers. Prioritize SELL strategy when the price retraces, set a tight SL to avoid bull trap. If the price breaks the bottom 0.0500 and closes a daily candle below this level, consider entering a breakout order with a deeper TP at 0.042.
