Waking up from a deep sleep, altcoins collectively plummeted, with declines generally exceeding 10%. The confidence and wallets of many retail investors, which were just starting to swell, have been shattered. It can be anticipated that during this round, many people's mental states will slowly explode, even starting to doubt life.
But amidst this wailing, I noticed one detail: Ethereum did not choose to crash. Instead, it is trying to stabilize the rhythm. This indicates that the main force's strategy may have shifted from 'washing Ethereum and altcoins' to 'only washing altcoins and maintaining the main chain'.
If this change holds, then this round of altcoin collapse could very well be the last step before a major market movement.
It should be noted that the current decline in altcoins feels very bad, especially for those who did not take profits at Ethereum 2770 during this wave. If you want to increase your position at a lower level, there is almost no operational space. On one hand, funds may have already run out; on the other hand, psychological pressure is also difficult to support operations.
If Bitcoin continues to retreat, for example testing around 100,000, then altcoins are very likely to drop again, further igniting emotions. It is often at this state of 'emotional extremes' that the market truly begins to rise.
During this retracement, I noticed one point: the main force is deliberately lowering market expectations. For example, at the recent Bitcoin conference, Trump's son and several other speakers generally expected only between 100,000 and 200,000, which is surprisingly subdued compared to the previous slogans of 500,000 or even millions.
The market structure has actually changed. Retail investors are no longer easily deceived; the proportion of those fully invested and lying flat has significantly increased. Everyone has also become smarter: not trading short, holding onto their positions. The main force, facing this situation of 'holding and not moving', has only two options—either truly break through and trend up, or continue to grind down spirits with volatility, shattering diamond hands one by one.
You can imagine that if Ethereum really goes through a cycle in the future, for example, dropping from 3500 to 1800, then surging to 4000, then pulling back, and then going up again, each time you feel it’s breaking through, but then it gets pulled back. Once or twice you can endure, but after three or four times, even if you still see 8000 in your heart, you may start to doubt life.
This is the rhythm of the main force: not only washing out positions but also washing out faith. The tighter you hold on, the harsher their actions will be, until you finally surrender and hand over your chips. Only then can the market truly start.
From a broader perspective, I still hold a bullish outlook, especially in June, when we are likely to welcome a wave of policy-level positive stimuli. The Bitcoin conference did not provide solid evidence but rather lowered expectations, which may be building strength for the future market.
Currently, in the short term, Ethereum has preliminary established a phase bottom in this wave of decline, and a decent rebound may occur soon. If it really goes back to 2100 or even below, that would be our golden position for heavy buying.
In the end, it’s still that saying: the direction is upwards, but the process will be very difficult. What you can do now is to ensure that you have some cash positions, leaving yourself with room for error. Every deep correction is an opportunity to re-enter. You don’t have to bet on the top or the bottom, but you must grasp the rhythm.
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