🪙 Introduction

The year 2025 has begun for the cryptocurrency market on a wave of optimism, and bitcoin, as its flagship, has once again found itself in the spotlight. After a confident rise in the first half of the year and a recent correction, analysts and investors are wondering: are we waiting for another 'bullish' run? More and more experts agree that the mark of $200,000 this year is quite achievable.

📈 Current dynamics: after the correction — growth?

By the end of May 2025, bitcoin is trading in the range of $105,000–$110,000. After reaching a new local maximum of $118,000 in April, the market experienced a short-term correction, which analysts believe is a healthy part of the long-term upward trend.

Factors supporting the current dynamics:

  • Institutional interest — companies like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Tesla continue to increase crypto positions.

  • The rise of bitcoin ETFs — trading volumes for futures and spot ETFs are breaking historical records.

  • Mining after halving — in April 2024, the next bitcoin halving took place, which traditionally triggers an upward cycle.

🔮 Forecast: $200,000 — fantasy or reality?

The analytical company CryptoQuant and a number of traders, including PlanB (creator of the Stock-to-Flow model), predict that by the fourth quarter of 2025, bitcoin could reach $180,000–$200,000. Here are the key arguments:
1. Technical indicators

  • Charts show the continuation of 'parabolic growth.'

  • The support level has moved above $90,000, which strengthens confidence in further growth.

2. Macroeconomic support

  • The US Federal Reserve plans to lower interest rates in the second half of the year, making risky assets more attractive.

  • The weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations are pushing investors towards 'digital gold.'

3. Political legitimization

  • Political support for cryptocurrencies is increasing in the USA and the UK.

  • Presidential candidates and lawmakers are including crypto initiatives in their election programs.

⚠️ Risks and constraining factors

  • Regulatory risks in certain countries may temporarily reduce market activity.

  • Mass unlocking of tokens and possible sales by large holders may cause short-term volatility.

  • Technical overheating of the market — the risk of profit-taking at high levels remains.

🧠 Conclusion

More signs indicate that bitcoin in 2025 is capable of not only breaking the historical maximum but also surpassing the mark of $200,000. However, this growth may be accompanied by high volatility and will depend on macroeconomic and political factors. For investors, the main thing is to maintain a strategic approach and be ready for various scenarios, but if buying, then at $FDUSD or $USDC .

Note: This article is not an investment recommendation. Cryptocurrencies are a high-risk asset, and all decisions should be made considering personal financial circumstances and risk levels.

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