Bitcoin whales are regaining dominance in exchange activity. The 30-day moving average of the whale ratio has risen to 0.47 — the highest level in the past seven months — indicating that nearly half of all Bitcoin inflows to exchanges now come from the largest transactions.
Historically, such spikes in whale activity have preceded significant market peaks, as large holders typically move funds in preparation for selling. With reduced participation from retail investors and increased influence from whales, the market may shift into a distribution phase, raising the risk of a short-term correction.
Is a Deeper Drop in Bitcoin Expected?
Recently, Bitcoin surpassed $111,000, reaching new all-time highs. However, profit-taking by whales and another potential macroeconomic downturn led to a drop in Bitcoin of over 6%, and it is currently trading at $104,000.
Data from CryptoQuant shows a sharp rise in the whale ratio on exchanges, indicating a need for caution.
Historically, when this ratio exceeds 0.5 — indicating that whales constitute the majority of inflows to exchanges — price peaks often follow.
The whale ratio measures how much of all Bitcoin inflows to exchanges comes from the ten largest transactions. A 30-day moving average of 0.47 means that nearly half of every Bitcoin deposit is a 'whale' transaction.
This pattern has been observed during previous market cycles, such as mid-2022 and late 2024, when increased whale activity coincided with significant corrections.
This indicates that large holders typically move funds to exchanges in anticipation of selling, often at or near local peaks. In contrast, periods when the whale ratio drops below 0.35 are often marked by accumulation phases or early bullish market momentum dominated by retail participants.
A striking example is mid-2023, when the ratio hit a low point, and Bitcoin began to rise steadily.
"The dominance of large holders is increasing in recent exchange activity. This sharp rise reflects the spike seen in the whale ratio during the Bitcoin price rally at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024," said CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn for BeInCrypto.
The current spike in the 30-day moving average of the whale ratio further reinforces the view that whales are becoming more active in exchange activity.
If history repeats itself, significant whale selling could trigger a pullback or increased volatility.
Although the price of Bitcoin currently remains strong, this change in behavioral dynamics suggests that the market may be transitioning from accumulation to distribution, increasing the likelihood of a short-term peak or correction.#BinanceSquare #Write2Earn #TradingTypes101 #FTXRefunds #CEXvsDEX101 $BTC