One, Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
1. **Price Dynamics**
- Current Price: Bitcoin is currently reported at $103,800, showing a clear downward trend within the day, having broken below the lower boundary of the rising channel.
- Technical Signals:
- Moving Average System: Short-term MA7 crosses below long-term MA30, confirming a weak pattern.
- Key Levels: Support level to watch is $102,000 (hourly demand zone), if lost, it may test $100,800 (lower boundary of the triangle pattern); resistance level at $105,800 (previous high).
- Indicators: MACD bearish momentum has not ended, RSI is neutral but weak (56.0), and low trading volume shows funds are on the sidelines.
2. **Reasons for the Crash**
- Policy Risk: US tariff policy is uncertain (federal court temporarily suspends the tariff ruling, Trump's government appeal triggers uncertainty), coupled with inflation data disturbances, triggering safe-haven sentiment.
- Capital Outflow: Bitcoin spot ETF ends a continuous 10-day net inflow with a single-day outflow of $359 million, institutions are becoming cautious in short-term allocations.
- Leverage Liquidation: 24-hour liquidations across the entire network total $711 million, with over 210,000 people liquidated, the largest single liquidation being $12.74 million (OKX-BTC).
Two, Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis
1. **Price Performance**
- Current Price: ETH is currently reported at $2,500, with a 24-hour decline of 3.5%, failing to hold the psychological barrier of $2,700.
- Technical Aspects: Short-term support is at $2,500, if broken, it may test $2,414 (previous low); resistance at $2,750-$2,790.
- Indicator Signals: MACD maintains a bearish signal, RSI has fallen from the overbought zone to 62, bullish momentum is weakening.
2. **Fundamental Changes**
- Staking track has cooled: The effect of the Pectra upgrade has faded, with increased outflow from Layer2 (STRK, TIA down more than 9%).
- ETF Fund Diversification: Ethereum spot ETF sees a single-day net inflow of $84.89 million, but it failed to offset...
Three, Core Drivers of Market Crash
1. **Macroeconomic Policy Disturbance**
- US Tariff Repeated: The federal appeals court has temporarily suspended the tariff ruling, and the Trump administration's appeal has triggered policy uncertainty, putting pressure on risk assets.
- Fed's interest rate cut expectation delayed: 91.8% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, tightening liquidity expectations suppress the crypto market.
2. **Technical Overbought Correction**
- BTC reached an RSI of 88.7 (overbought) after breaking $110,000, profit-taking has concentrated and triggered a correction.
- Ethereum futures open interest reaches $46.2 billion (historical high), high leverage exacerbates volatility.
3. **Sector Rotation and Capital Diversion**
- Leading Gaining Sectors: Meme coins (TRUMP +20%) are being traded against the trend, RWA track (Stellar increased by $3 billion in physical assets) is favored by safe-haven funds.
- Leading Decline Sectors: Layer2 (STRK -9.64%), GameFi (AXS -9.05%) and DeFi all retreated.
Four, Capital Flow and Institutional Behavior
1. **ETF Dynamics**:
- Bitcoin ETF ends a continuous 10-day net inflow with a single-day outflow of $359 million; Ethereum ETF maintains net inflow but with insufficient strength.
2. **On-chain Data**:
- Addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have slowed down their accumulation, with some chips shifting to exchanges (daily net inflow of 2,000 BTC).
3. **Institutional Attitude**:
- JPMorgan allows clients to purchase BTC, but CEO Jamie Dimon reiterates the critical stance that 'Bitcoin has money laundering risks.'
Five, Operational Strategy and Risk Warning
1. **Short-term Strategy**
- BTC: If it stabilizes above $102,000, consider light long positions, target $105,800; if it breaks below, remain cautious and wait for $100,800 for phased layout.
- ETH: Build positions below $2,500, set stop loss at $2,400; if it breaks $2,600, it can be chased for short-term gains.
- Sector Selection: Oversold Layer2 (OP, STRK), RWA track (Stellar) has rebound potential; Meme coins (TRUMP) require quick entry and exit.
2. **Risk Warning**
- Policy Sensitive Period: Pay attention to June's Fed interest rate decision and the final tariff ruling on July 9.
- Leverage Risk: Total open interest across the network reaches $68 billion, high leverage easily triggers a series of liquidations.
Six, Summary and Outlook
- Short-term: The market has entered a technical adjustment phase, BTC is oscillating within the range ($100,800 - $105,800), ETH is testing the validity of the $2,500 support.
- Long-term: Institutional processes (ETF, RWA legislation) and the internationalization of the digital yuan (e-CNY pilot expansion) remain core drivers.
- Key Events:
- Fed's June interest rate decision (rate cut signal may become a turning point);
- Bitcoin Conference Policy Details (follow-up impact after May 28).
Position Suggestion: 50% mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) + 30% high elasticity tracks (Layer2/RWA) + 20% cash defenses.
**Disclaimer**: The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks are high; decisions should be made cautiously.
