What Will the Fed Do After PCE Data?
Core PCE is the Fed's most watched inflation indicator.
Today's data supports the pricing of 1 rate cut until the end of the year.
💬 Fed members' statements still emphasize that “we will stick to the data”.
However, persistence in housing and services inflation continues.
🔍 Market pricing:
65% probability of 25-50bps rate cut by December 2025
Dollar index retreats, short-term relief in gold and crypto markets
PCE remains moderate, forcing both the Fed and the market to “wait patiently”.
How would you position according to this data?