🔻 $BTC Falls Below $106,000 — What’s ?
$BTC
Technical analysis and short-term forecast (4H chart)



🧭 Current Market Overview




  • Current Price: $105,702.97



  • 24H Change: -2.34%



  • 24H High/Low: $108,891.91 / $104,600.50



  • Volume: Moderate-to-high (21,199.62 BTC)


Bitcoin has slipped below the $106K mark, continuing its recent downtrend. Traders are watching closely as key support levels get tested.



📊 Chart & Indicator Breakdown


🔸 Price Action




  • Trend: The chart shows a clear downtrend, with consistent lower highs and lower lows.



  • Support: Strong bounce from $104,600.50 suggests this area is acting as short-term support.



  • Resistance Levels:




    • Immediate: $105,855



    • Above that: $107,478 and $109,101


Recent candlesticks show aggressive selling pressure, with large red candles breaking below previous support levels.



🔸 Volume




  • Increased sell volume on recent candles confirms bearish momentum.



  • The latest green candle has noticeably lower volume, indicating weak buyer commitment and likely a dead cat bounce.



🔸 Moving Averages (MA)




  • MA(5): 3,498



  • MA(10): 3,313

    ↳ Short-term MA has crossed below the longer-term MA — a bearish signal.



🔸 MACD




  • DIF: -690.82



  • DEA: -346.65



  • MACD Line: -344.17


The MACD is deep in negative territory with a bearish crossover confirmed. Momentum continues to favor sellers.



🔸 RSI (Relative Strength Index)




  • RSI(7): 28.62 (Oversold)



  • RSI(12): 34.10



  • RSI(24): 42.17


Short-term RSI is in oversold territory, which may lead to a relief bounce, though not necessarily a full reversal.



📅 Short-Term Forecast (Next 24–72 Hours)




  • Bias: Bearish, with a chance of a short-term bounce



  • Scenario:




    • BTC may retest $105,855 as resistance.



    • Failure to break above convincingly → possible drop back to $104,600 or lower.



    • A close below $104,200 could trigger a fall toward the $102,000–103,000 zone.



    • Bullish invalidation: A daily close above $107,500 may signal the start of a short-term reversal.



📌 Strategy Suggestion




  • Wait for confirmation. Only consider long positions if BTC shows strong support at $104,600 (e.g., a bounce with rising green volume).



  • Otherwise, long positions remain high-risk in the current setup.



  • Scalping oversold bounces is possible, but downside risk is still present if support fails.



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