Bitcoin (BTC) ki trading, especially futures market mein, bara dilchasp aur kabhi kabhi bara emotional khel hai. Aapki baat bilkul sahi hai, isay Pakistani 'sense' mein samajhnay ki koshish kartay hain, thodi English aur thodi Urdu ka tarka laga kar.
Aap ne jo example di hai, woh market ki us reality ko highlight karti hai jahan liquidation aur profit-taking ka interaction price movement ko drive karta hai. Chalo, isko thora aur simplify kartay hain:
Imagine karo, ek banda long gaya hai $108,000 pe (yani woh sochta hai price upar jaye ga) aur uska liquidation price $106,000 hai. Dusra banda short gaya hai $108,000 pe (woh sochta hai price neeche aye ga) aur uska liquidation price $110,000 hai.
Ab aap kehte hain ke bullish market hai aur price $108,800 tak chala gaya. Jab long wala banda yahan profit book kar ke exit karta hai, toh aapka observation hai ke price $110,000 ki taraf move karta rehta hai. Aapki observation bilkul durust hai!
Iski Wajah Kya Hai?
* Bulls Ki Profit-Taking: Jab long positions wale exit karte hain, to aik taraf se buying pressure thora kam hota hai. Lekin, agar market ka overall sentiment bullish hai, toh naye buyers aate rehte hain. Jo log long position mein hain aur woh profit book karte hain, toh unki selling ki wajah se price neeche aana chahiye, right? Lekin aisa hota nahi, agar overall market mein momentum ho.
* Shorts Pe Dabao (Pressure): Jo asli game hai woh short sellers ke liye hai. Jab price upar ja raha hota hai, toh har barrti hui candle short sellers pe pressure dalti hai. Unka stop-loss aur liquidation price nazdeek aane lagta hai. Jab price $110,000 ki taraf barhta hai, toh un short positions ko cover karna parta hai. Jo short sellers hain, unko apni position close karne ke liye BTC buy karna parta hai. Is forced buying ki wajah se price aur tezi se upar jata hai.
Aapne bilkul sahi kaha: "There is no pressure to push the price up; only when it reaches the liquidation price or stop-loss price of the bears will the funds of the bears be released to subsidize a portion to the person who just went long. The remaining part goes to the exchange."
Iska matlab hai ke short sellers ka capital (margin) exchange ke paas locked hota hai. Jab unki position liquidate hoti hai, toh woh funds use hotay hain un long positions ko cover karne ke liye jin se exchange ne profit earn kiya ya jin long walon ne exit kiya. Bacha hua hissa exchange ki pocket mein jata hai.
Aapka Nikla Hua Aadha Trade
Aapki frustration samajh aati hai: "In this trade, I exited halfway, and the price continued to rise." Yeh common scenario hai. Jab aapko lagta hai ke aap ne acha profit bana liya hai aur aap exit kar gaye, lekin market aapke exit karne ke baad aur upar chala gaya.
Bottom Line: Bullish Trend Mein Shorts Dangerous Hain
"So with this logic, if you go back to trading, no matter how many short positions you enter during the bullish trend, they will all be buried before reaching the target price."
Yeh bilkul accurate observation hai! Bullish trend mein shorting karna aag se khelne jaisa hai. Market jab upar ja raha hota hai, toh har dip ko buyers utha letay hain. Short positions ko constantly squeeze kiya jata hai, aur aksar woh liquidation ya stop-loss hit ho kar band ho jati hain, jis se price ko mazeed upar janay ka fuel milta hai. Isay short squeeze bhi kehtay hain.
Isi liye, trend is your friend! Agar market bullish hai, toh long positions ki taraf dekho. Shorting sirf tab effective hoti hai jab overall sentiment bearish ho ya phir aap scalping kar rahe ho with very tight stop-losses.
Kya aapko lagta hai ke is wajah se traders ko apni strategies revise karni chahiye?
