SOL is caught between whale selling pressure and technical dawn, with $166 becoming the life-and-death line for bulls and bears!

News front: Intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears

Whale Selling Pressure Alert
On May 12, FTX-associated wallets unlocked 187,000 SOL in one day (approximately $32.24 million), and the token platform Pump.fun simultaneously transferred 132,000 SOL to exchanges, causing a sudden surge in short-term selling pressure. However, on May 16, large institutional orders suddenly surged, with daily trading volume increasing by 38%, and buying depth anomalies suggest that major players are still lurking.

Ecological Technology Double-Edged Sword
Network fundamentals are solid: Q1 revenue exceeded $200 million, crushing Ethereum, with DEX trading volume accounting for 24% of the entire market. However, a 40% trading failure rate exposes persistent congestion issues; the upside is the countdown to the Alpenglow upgrade, with major changes to the consensus mechanism aiming for 100 ms confirmation, which could ignite a performance revolution if successful.

June Macro Life and Death Game
Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations + 8 million SOL unlocked (accounting for 1.8% of circulation) create dual bearish pressure; however, Grayscale increased its holdings to 5.2 million SOL, and MicroStrategy hoarded 180,000 coins, indicating clear institutional support.

Technical front: $166 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears

4-hour chart triangle convergence: Price fluctuations narrow to $165-$180, MACD green bars continue to extend, bears temporarily hold the upper hand; however, $166 overlaps with the lower Bollinger Band support, bulls are firmly defending the line.

Key Signal Divergence: Although no clear bottom divergence is present, RSI is approaching the oversold zone (current value 38.42), and the daily head and shoulders neckline at $175 has not been broken, leaving the mid-term trend open to reversal possibilities.

Volume Alert: Recent 4-hour volume and price both declined, with a strong market wait-and-see sentiment; a volume breakout above $180 is needed to activate buying.

Operation Summary: Keep a close eye on two major momentum triggers

Short-term: Lightly buy near 170, stop loss at 165; chase after breaking 180.

Medium-term: If volume stabilizes above the $180 neck line, increase positions targeting $190; if it breaks below $160, watch the $150 institutional support zone.

Risk Hedging: Buy $160 put options before the June unlock, or use CME futures to control 3x leverage.

Awaiting the June showdown at the $175 neckline, this tug-of-war between bulls and bears will determine whether SOL blooms or sinks in the summer!

For specific buy and sell points, click on my avatar to follow me for more information. Enjoy deploying high-potential coins in a bull market and daily spot strategies!