Yesterday, Bitcoin began to show signs of a pullback, dipping to a low near 105,300. It has now fallen below the 20-day moving average (currently at 106,300). If BTC fails to reclaim this level within the next 1â2 days, further downside toward 100,000 and potentially 95,000 appears likely.
However, should BTC manage to regain the 20-day line and push higher, caution is advised. Such a rebound could signal a final bull trapâa last upward move before a deeper correction. We currently estimate the probability of a false rally versus continued downside as roughly 50/50.
đ Potential Pullback Zones:
This recent uptrend has taken BTC from 74,500 to 111,980, a gain of around 37,000 points. Using standard Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement suggests support near 93,000
0.618 retracement indicates a possible bottom around 89,000
0.382 retracement points to support near 97,000
Given that the 60-day moving average is near 90,000, a logical support range for this correction is likely between 93,000 and 95,000. After 8 consecutive weeks of gains on the weekly chart, a correction of at least 2â3 weeks would be healthy and expected.
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đ Key Takeaways:
1. MACD Analysis: Bitcoin's MACD has returned to the zero axis, signaling that the correction trend remains active.
If BTC reclaims the 20-day MA soon, a final rally toward 110,000 could occurâa prime opportunity to reduce exposure, not to buy the top.
Failure to reclaim the 20-day line likely leads to a direct drop below 100,000.
Both outcomes remain equally probable.
2. Strategy for Dip Buyers:
Patience is key. Look to enter in the 93,000â95,000 range.
A potential rebound from that zone could target 105,000.
â ď¸ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects market trends as of May 30 and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.