News front: Favorable news bombardment but lacks follow-through
Institutions are accumulating:
Trump plans to invest $2.5 billion to buy BTC, GameStop purchases another 4,710 coins, and spot ETF sees a daily net inflow of $433 million.
Major moves from giants: Square fully integrates Bitcoin payments, Metaplanet issues bonds to increase BTC holdings, institutional coin-stock linkage strategy boosts market expectations.
Emerging concerns:
Despite the dense favorable news, BTC surged to 110,700 and quickly retraced with increased volume, failing to peak again in the early hours, showing heavy selling pressure at high levels.
On-chain data shows excessive bullish leverage; if it breaks key support, it may trigger long liquidation.
Technical aspect: Divergence signals sound the alarm
Key levels:
Current price 106,036, recent high 111,980, low 74,508. Short-term support looks at 105,000, strong support at 93,000 (institutional bottom support zone). If it breaks down with volume below 102,000 (4-hour midline), it may test 100,000 → 93,000.
Indicator warning: MACD top divergence: price approaches previous high, but DIF line (1410) does not make a new high, indicating a decline in bullish momentum.
Bollinger Bands narrowing: amplitude is only 1.18% (upper band 90,912 ↔ lower band 82,666), a reversal is imminent; breaking the midline at 86,789 will turn bearish.
Operation Summary: Look for opportunities in defense
Short-term: If it stabilizes above 112,000, light positions can chase long, targeting previous high 111,900;
If it breaks below 98,000, reduce positions and observe, with a focus on defending the 10,000 support.
Medium-term: 92,000-94,000 is the institutional cost zone, can accumulate in batches; stop loss below 90,000.
