By 10.5% over the past seven days, as technical and derived indicators point to increasing weakness. Futures volume has fallen below $100 million for five consecutive days, indicating a sharp decline in speculative interest compared to the March peak of $1.3 billion.
Despite its historical tracking of Bitcoin movements closely, the performance of $HBAR has been weak during Bitcoin's recent rise, achieving only a 0.75% increase in the past thirty days. With the exponential moving average lines continuing to trend downward and the price approaching the critical support level at $0.18, $HBAR faces a key test that may determine its direction as June approaches.
The decline in HBAR futures volume below $100 million - what does it mean?
The volume of futures for #HBAR has dropped to $96.5 million and remained below the $100 million mark for five consecutive days, representing a sharp contrast to the high levels seen earlier this year.
On March 1, futures volume peaked at $1.3 billion, but since then, both volume and open interest have declined steadily.
HBAR futures allow traders to speculate on the future price of the token, often reflecting broader sentiment and risk appetite from both retail and institutional participants.
HBAR: Futures volume. Source: Glass_node.
The recent decline indicates a decrease in speculative interest, which may suggest caution or dissatisfaction with the short-term price direction of HBAR.
With the 7-day exponential moving average of HBAR futures volume reaching a three-month low, data suggests that the current price movement may increasingly be driven by immediate demand rather than financial positions.
This shift in market structure may signal reduced volatility and a more organic price direction in the near term. However, without a recovery in derivatives activity, any upward movements may lack the momentum typically provided by aggressive speculative flows.
Hedera lags behind Bitcoin's rise - will it catch up in June?
Historically, HBAR's price has shown a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), often amplifying broader market movements.
However, over the past thirty days, it seems that relationship has weakened - Bitcoin rose by 14.3%, while HBAR achieved only a 0.75% increase during the same period.
Performance of BTC and HBAR over the last 30 days. Source: Mes_sari.
This divergence indicates that HBAR has not yet responded to the recent bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market, despite usually being a higher beta asset.
In previous cycles, HBAR has often outperformed Bitcoin during bullish periods but has also faced sharper declines during broader market corrections, reflecting its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
If Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs in June, HBAR may be well-positioned for a sharper upward move, as it did during previous rallies.
HBAR is approaching the support level of $0.18 as the downward exponential moving average setup continues.
The structure of HBAR's exponential moving average remains bearish, as short-term exponential moving averages are still positioned below long-term averages - a classic sign of continued bearish momentum.
The token has been trading below the $0.20 mark for the past six days, reflecting ongoing pressure and a lack of upward follow-through.
HBAR price analysis. Source: Tradin_gView.
This setup reinforces the cautious sentiment surrounding HBAR as it hovers near key technical levels.
Currently, HBAR is approaching the critical support level at $0.18, and losing this level would represent its first break below this threshold since May 8.
However, if the market shifts and momentum improves in June, HBAR could break back above $0.20, with the potential to rise towards $0.25 - an area it hasn't touched since early March.
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