Common Trends in Contract Trading of Doughnut Circles #币圈
1. Upward Trend: Stepwise rise, pullback is an opportunity
Features: Highs and lows gradually increase, moving averages in bullish arrangement (MA50 > MA100), Bollinger Bands open upwards.
Strategy:
Go long when the price pulls back to the MA50 or trendline support, set stop loss 2% below the previous low (e.g., if BTC pulls back to 30,000, stop loss at 29,500).
Chase long when breaking through the previous high with significant volume confirmation (over 50% increase in volume), set stop loss below the breakout point.
Risk Control: Be cautious of divergence at the top (new price high but RSI declines), reduce positions to prevent reversal.
2. Downward Trend: Spiral decline, rebound is short
Features: Lows and highs continuously decrease, moving averages in bearish arrangement, Bollinger Bands diverge downwards.
Strategy:
Short when rebounding to the MA50 or trendline resistance, set stop loss 2% above the previous high (e.g., if ETH rebounds to 1500 USD, stop loss at 1530 USD).
Chase short when breaking below the previous low, volume confirmation required, set stop loss above the breakout point.
Risk Control: Be cautious of short traps during oversold conditions (RSI < 20), participate lightly in rebound shorts, do not chase shorts to extreme low positions.
3. Sideways Fluctuation: Box game, buy high sell low
Features: Price fluctuates within a clear range (e.g., BTC 28,000 - 32,000), moving averages are fused, volume is sluggish.
Strategy:
Go long near the lower boundary of the range, short near the upper boundary, keep positions within 30%, set stop loss 3% outside the range.
Grid trading: Set automatic buy/sell with 1%-2% price intervals, reserve 20% of funds for breakout response.
Risk Control: Avoid dense limit orders at range boundaries, quickly switch trend strategies after a breakout, prevent stop loss hunting due to spikes.
4. Unilateral Trend: Violent market driven by extreme emotions
Features: Continuous long bullish or long bearish candles, price far from moving averages (deviation rate > 20%), extreme long/short position ratio (> 2 or < 0.5).
Strategy:
Lightly chase after the first breakout (20% position), increase positions along the 5-day moving average (add 10% for every 1% pullback), set trailing stop loss at the low point of the previous candlestick (long)/high point (short).
When perpetual contracts have high fees (> 0.1%/8h), partially switch to futures contracts to reduce holding costs.
Risk Control: Be cautious of reversals when positions drop sharply, such as when BTC saw a 30% drop in positions before peaking in 2021, prioritize profit-taking at this time.
