Current performance of Toncoin (TON):
- Price increase of 9.85%: The currency traded at $3.27, up from a level of $2.98 in the early hours.
- Trading volume explosion of 657%: Daily trading volume reached $1.24 billion, compared to previously modest levels.
- Market capitalization: Jumped to $8.15 billion, with negative liquidity (liquidations) of $8.04 million.
Factors driving the increase:
1. Financial news from Telegram:
- Telegram (the original partner of Toncoin) plans to raise $1.5 billion through debt bonds at an interest rate of 9%.
- Major institutions like BlackRock and Mubadala (Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund) are interested in investing.
- This move has boosted investor confidence in the stability of the ecosystem associated with TON.
2. Partnership with Elon Musk:
- Collaboration between xAI (Musk's company) and Telegram to integrate the smart chatbot Grok into the platform.
- With 900 million Telegram users, an increase in TON usage is expected for microtransactions and AI services.
3. Ecosystem cleanup actions:
- Telegram's closure of illegal markets related to financial crimes (such as Xinbi Guarantee and Huione Guarantee), enhancing confidence in the TON project.
Technical indicators: Contradictory signals :
| Indicator | Value/Status | Significance |
|------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------|
| MACD | Above the signal line | Strong bullish momentum |
| RSI | 62.49 | Room for upward movement before overbought area |
| Bull Bear Power (BBP) | 0.180 | Moderate buying pressure |
| Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) | -0.07 | Negative capital flow (selling pressure) |
- Resistance and support:
- Major resistance: $3.60 - $3.70.
- Critical support: $3.20 - $3.12.
- A break below $3.31 could push the price towards $3.45-$3.95.
Forecast: Rise or reversal? :
- Bullish scenario:
- If the momentum continues, a golden cross may form, pushing the price to $4.00-$4.50, especially with deepening AI partnerships.
- Bearish scenario:
- A breakdown of support at $3.20 could attract a death cross, causing a drop to $3.00 or lower.
Critical point: A 657% increase in trading volume supports the sustainability of the rise, but the negative CME indicator warns of a short-term correction.
Summary: Strong fundamental factors versus cautious technical signals
Toncoin remains a promising currency due to its association with Telegram and its technological partnerships, but its near-term path depends on:
1. Price stability above $3.30 to support the upward trend.
2. Continuous trading volume above $1 billion to confirm momentum.
3. News developments such as the successful issuance of Telegram bonds or the activation of the Grok partnership. #TradingTypes101