Why don't you have Bitcoin yet?

The answer is actually one sentence: It’s not that there isn’t enough information, it’s not that there isn’t enough intelligence, it’s that the "old map" in your head and the "fear switch" are at play!

How exactly are they at play? Just look at how painful history hits back.

2011: Nobel laureate tells you to get on board ($7!)

Isn’t the signal strong enough? Krugman says, "At least for now, it’s a good investment."

Why didn't you move?

The price had just plummeted (from $29 to $7), it looked like it was going to crash.

You thought: "What does a Nobel laureate matter? It’s dropped like crazy, going in to catch falling knives? Let’s wait and see!"

2013: A highly upvoted post on Zhihu interprets it ($675!)

Isn’t the signal hot enough? 12,000 people liked it, translating the Nobel laureate's viewpoint for you.

Why didn't you move? It had risen nearly 100 times in two years! You muttered to yourself: "Crazy! It’s definitely a bubble! It’s so expensive to jump in and become a leek? Not gonna happen!" (Result: Missed out on continued surge, just days later it shot up to over $1,000)

Later: Big shots all shout “bubble”! ($10,000+ fell to $8,000)

Krugman turned against it, got angry when asked about Bitcoin while getting a haircut, wrote an article cursing “bubble, bubble, scam!”

Jack Ma also said: “Blockchain is a good thing, but Bitcoin is a bubble!”

Why did you believe it? The price indeed halved from its peak, and all the big shots said it was a bubble, making you feel your "rational" judgment was validated: “See, I said it was a bubble! Luckily didn’t buy!”

(Result: Missed out on the subsequent recovery and even crazier growth)

So, where is the fundamental problem? — Your “rationality” is actually a disguise for “fear” and “arrogance”!

As a trader, what have I seen through?

Big opportunities are born in controversy and fear.

When consensus is reached, the opportunity is often gone.

When the Nobel laureate recommended it early on, and when Zhihu's highly upvoted interpretation came out, there was huge controversy, fear was rampant, and that was precisely the signal!

The real risk is not price volatility, but cognitive rigidity. Clinging to the old map, unable to see the new land. Applying traditional monetary theory rigidly to Bitcoin is like demanding that cars meet the standards of horse-drawn carriages.

Want to see clearly into the next decade? Let go of arrogance, stay curious, think deeply, and be moderately brave.

Want to discuss the next potential “Big Thing”? Hit follow, in-depth analysis is on the way...$BTC