The U.S. International Trade Court ruled this morning to overturn the tariff policy towards China established during the Trump administration. This ruling marks a clear rejection of unilateral trade protectionism by the federal judicial system. The tariff weapon, originally aimed at seizing trade advantages, has now become a negative example that disrupts market order, with its policy effectiveness and economic impact significantly diminished by the market.

In the current market environment, the marginal effect of tariff policies has clearly waned. Whether as a bullish or bearish factor, it is difficult to stir substantial waves. The market response is expected to be flat, possibly showing narrow fluctuations, with limited volatility.

Focus returns to the main track of the capital market: Bitcoin continues its strong upward momentum, while Ethereum also shows characteristics of a technical rebound. However, most altcoins remain deeply mired in a liquidity trap, and the pattern of market differentiation continues to manifest. Future market attention may refocus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the endogenous structural evolution of the cryptocurrency market.

Back to the Bitcoin discussion: First, if it doesn't break 106,000, the bears should keep quiet. It has withstood 106,600 twice already, and even with divergence, it can still set new highs, indicating that the root of the trend is firmly in place and cannot be changed by anyone.

Let's talk about Ethereum: Ethereum has been suppressed for a long time, and contract positions are about to hit new highs. But what about the price? It collapses after rebounding to half of the previous high. Is this a healthy market? Forget it! This is a typical illusion created by contract gamblers, and the risk is extremely high. Without a sudden surge in the spot market, the contract market is bound to crash sooner or later. If we want Ethereum to rise, it still requires substantial real capital to come in, not just a few words from KOLs to get it going.

Even worse, the Ethereum community is not united. ICO veterans, those trapped at 2021 highs, and ancient whales are all secretly dumping, and no one wants to accompany anyone to ten thousand dollars. The result? Every time there is a rally, it gets slapped down again, making it incredibly difficult to break new highs. This is not a consensus at all.

Ultimately, if we really want Ethereum to break 5,000 or even reach 10,000, everyone must pretend to be crazy and sell foolishly, believing it can take off, for there to be a glimmer of hope. And now? Most people will run away with their spot holdings at 3,000, so unless there is a fundamental shift, it's better not to dream—it's still very early!