1. Yesterday's Review
BTC continued to consolidate in a high price range yesterday, and finally experienced a rapid decline in the early hours on an hourly basis, validating the earlier judgment that "the multi-period top structure is gradually weakening, and momentum needs to retrace."
This dip reached a low near 106,600, followed by a short-term rebound. The current price is around 107,800, still maintaining a wide fluctuation range of 106,600 - 110,450. Although there was a short-term rebound on the hourly chart, the momentum is weak, and the structural downside risk has not been completely eliminated.
From the candlestick and volume performance, the daily line shows a small bearish candle with a lower shadow. The MA30 medium-term moving average maintains an upward trend. Although the MACD red bar is still above the zero axis, the downward momentum shows signs of slow strengthening, indicating further adjustment space at the daily level.
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2. Today's Trend Analysis
Currently, BTC is still in a structural consolidation phase of high-level fluctuations and decreasing momentum. Multi-period signals show that bullish momentum is significantly weakening, and the upward structure in the 6-hour and 8-hour timeframes is clearly lacking strength.
Although the short-term rebound has attempted multiple times to stabilize above 110,000, it has failed to effectively break through with increased volume, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The market has currently entered a clear wait-and-see and game-playing phase, with a high probability of fluctuating repeatedly in the support area.
In the medium term, if it retraces to larger cycle support levels (such as 106,100, 104,000) and gains strong support, it is expected to rebuild momentum and challenge the upper resistance again.
In terms of rhythm, the short-term may continue to maintain a box structure of "high-level retracement - decreasing volume fluctuations - slight repairs."
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3. Technical Structure Observation
Daily Level: MA30 continues to rise, structure unbroken; MACD momentum slowly declines, beware of further adjustments;
6H/8H Cycle: Top pattern has emerged, momentum is declining, currently not conducive to breakthrough;
1H/2H Cycle: Increased volatility after a low-level rebound, with potential for further fluctuations in the short term.
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4. Key Technical Level References
Short-term Support Levels: 105,300, 104,120, 101,750, 97,520
Daily Support Levels: 106,100, 104,000, 101,430, 99,456
Upper Resistance Levels: 110,000, 120,450, 131,000
