Introduction:
The concerns we've always had have finally happened! The U.S. Senate passed the (GENIUS Act) with an overwhelming majority, directly putting a 'tightening spell' on the stablecoin market. Giants like USDT and USDC are forced to become 'U.S. Treasury rescuers', shaking the global financial circle! Is this a 'lifesaving pill' for U.S. dollar hegemony, or a 'time bomb' that will trigger the next Lehman crisis? People in the crypto space won't be able to sleep tonight...
1. Core of the legislation: Stablecoins are forced to 'infuse' U.S. Treasuries, Trump's 'financial conspiracy'
- The '1:1 reserve + monthly audit' iron rule: The legislation mandates that all U.S. dollar stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) must hold 100% cash, U.S. Treasuries, or bank deposits, and publish audit reports monthly. Violators face heavy penalties! This means that giants like Tether (holding $120 billion in U.S. Treasuries) will be forced to continue increasing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, indirectly 'filling the pit' of the U.S. $36 trillion debt.
- 'Big players under closer scrutiny': Stablecoin issuers with a market cap over $10 billion (like USDT and USDC) will be directly regulated by the federal government, while smaller players will be handed over to state-level agencies—clearly favoring oligarchs and squeezing out competitors.
- Ban on non-U.S. dollar stablecoins: The legislation directly prohibits foreign stablecoins (like offshore USDT) from circulating in the U.S. unless they accept equivalent regulation. This upgrades U.S. dollar hegemony to 'On-chain Version 3.0', making it even more difficult for the global settlement system to decouple.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market:
- Short-term benefits for compliant coins: USDC may become the biggest winner due to its high transparency, while USDT may face a 'compliance test'.
- Negative outlook for algorithmic stablecoins: Under the shadow of the UST collapse, algorithmic stablecoins (like FRAX) are directly categorized as 'high risk', and their market share may drop to zero.
- Restructuring of exchanges: Compliant platforms like Coinbase will benefit, but they must delist non-compliant stablecoins, reducing trading pairs and potentially triggering a liquidity crisis.
2. Is the U.S. Treasury crisis being transferred globally? The fatal hidden danger of stablecoins becoming 'rescuers'.
- 'Mosquito carrying a cannon': The total scale of global stablecoins is only $232 billion, while the annual interest on U.S. Treasuries exceeds $1 trillion! Relying on stablecoins to take over is simply a drop in the bucket.
- Chain reaction of risks:
- Run crisis: If users collectively redeem USDT, Tether will need to sell U.S. Treasuries for cash → U.S. Treasury prices plummet → other stablecoin reserves devalue → total collapse.
- Collapse of U.S. Treasuries: If U.S. Treasuries collapse first, stablecoin reserves will instantly shrink, and the UST tragedy may repeat.
- Trump's 'political private goods': The legislation is revealed to greenlight the USD1 stablecoin (with a market cap of $2 billion) supported by the Trump family, sparking outrage from Democrats over 'interest transfer'.
3. Is U.S. dollar hegemony being 'extended on-chain'? China and Russia may face downgraded attacks.
- 'Digital dollar colonization': 99% of global stablecoins are pegged to the dollar. After this legislation passes, cross-border payments, DeFi, and even other countries' CBDCs (like digital yuan) may be 'choked' by the U.S. dollar system.
- Countering China and Europe: The EU's MiCA regulations have just been implemented, China is promoting digital yuan for cross-border payments, and the U.S. aims to seize control over the rules for digital currencies.
- Technology giants' 'financialization' dream shattered: The legislation explicitly prohibits Meta, Apple, and others from issuing stablecoins without permission, preventing them (GENIUS Act) from being 'regulated', but in reality, it is the U.S. system 'choking' them.
4. What should crypto people do? Beware of the 'policy market' harvesting!
- Short-term strategy:
- Pay attention to the price difference between USDC and USDT; compliance benefits may push up USDC premiums.
- Stay away from algorithmic stablecoins and small issuers to avoid 'sudden death' risks.
- U.S. dollar hegemony 'extended on-chain':
- With the U.S. Treasury crisis unresolved, the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' may be strengthened (the U.S. has proposed buying BTC with gold reserves).
- In the context of geopolitical conflicts, decentralized stablecoins (like DAI) may become a safe haven option.
Conclusion:
(GENIUS Act) appears to be 'regulation', but in reality, it is a 'financial war' for U.S. dollar hegemony in the blockchain era. Trump is betting on global stablecoins to extend the life of U.S. Treasuries; if he wins, he wins it all, but if he loses, the whole world goes down with him! Crypto people, fasten your seatbelts—this market trend will either make you rich or lead to disaster!
(With over 10,000 shares, there will be a follow-up breakdown. Trump responded overnight on Truth Social!)$BTC
