## Bitcoin Analysis (BTC/USDT): Natural Correction or Beginning of a Downtrend? 28/5/2025

#### 📌 Immediate Facts

1. Current Performance:

- -2.10% at $107,660 → Correction within a general range.

- Market Cap: $2.15 Trillion (Dominance 61.78%).

2. Liquidity Movement:

- Daily Trading Volume: $49.03 Billion (2.28% of Market Cap) → Ongoing Institutional Liquidity.

- Net Whale Flows: -2,965 BTC (Large Short-Term Selling).

3. Technical Levels:

- Nearest Support: $105,000 (Successful Previous Test).

- Resistance: $110,000 (Turned from Previous Support).

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#### 🔍 3 Key Signals from the Data

1. Contradictory Whale Behavior:

- 11,489 BTC bought in large orders against 1,710 BTC sold → Silent Accumulation.

- However, net flows are negative due to medium-sized selling (-3,606 BTC).

2. Technical Indicators:

- RSI 52 (Neutral Area with Slight Downward Bias).

- MACD about to cross negatively → Warning of Continued Correction.

3. Broader Market Context:

- Volume/Market Cap Ratio 2.28% → Healthy liquidity to absorb selling.

- Exchange Inventory Decreasing (-8,000 BTC Monthly) → Ongoing Scarcity.

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#### 🎯 Smart Trading Strategies

| Scenario | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Target | Duration |

|----------------------|---------------------|------------------|--------------------|------------------|

| Buy at Support | $105,000-$106,000 | $103,000 | $112,000 | 3-7 Days |

| Sell on the Rise | $109,500-$110,000 | $111,000 | $105,000 | Daily |

| Golden Patience | < $103,000 | $100,000 | $120,000+ | Monthly |

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#### ⚡ Realistic Forecasts (With Probabilities)

1. Upward Bounce (60%):

- Breaking $110,000 → Heading towards $112,000-$115,000.

- Driver: Return of institutional buyers.

2. Sideways Trading (30%):

- Fluctuation between $105,000-$110,000 → Waiting for an external catalyst.

3. Sudden Drop (10%):

- Breaking $105,000 → Testing $100,000 (Major Support).

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#### 💡 Professional Tools (Often Overlooked)

- "Adjusted SOPR" Indicator: Indicates that most current buyers entered at $95,000-$100,000 → Strong Support.

- "Stock-to-Flow" Model: Predicts $120,000 by the end of 2025 (Aligned with Current Trend).

- Capital Management:

```

50% at $106,000

30% at $104,000

20% at $102,000

```

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#### 📌 Executive Summary

✅ For Day Traders: Take advantage of the range $105K-$110K with OCO orders.

✅ For Investors: Buy at $105K or lower is a strategic deal.

⚠️ Warning:

> "Corrections below 110K are historical buying opportunities in Bitcoin cycles!"

> "Bitcoin is like the sun: it may be temporarily obscured by clouds, but it returns brighter."

Final Outcome: $BNB

$BTC

This correction is healthy and necessary for the continuation of the rise. Best buying opportunity at $105,000 or lower.

#BTC #