## Bitcoin Analysis (BTC/USDT): Natural Correction or Beginning of a Downtrend? 28/5/2025
#### 📌 Immediate Facts
1. Current Performance:
- -2.10% at $107,660 → Correction within a general range.
- Market Cap: $2.15 Trillion (Dominance 61.78%).
2. Liquidity Movement:
- Daily Trading Volume: $49.03 Billion (2.28% of Market Cap) → Ongoing Institutional Liquidity.
- Net Whale Flows: -2,965 BTC (Large Short-Term Selling).
3. Technical Levels:
- Nearest Support: $105,000 (Successful Previous Test).
- Resistance: $110,000 (Turned from Previous Support).
---
#### 🔍 3 Key Signals from the Data
1. Contradictory Whale Behavior:
- 11,489 BTC bought in large orders against 1,710 BTC sold → Silent Accumulation.
- However, net flows are negative due to medium-sized selling (-3,606 BTC).
2. Technical Indicators:
- RSI 52 (Neutral Area with Slight Downward Bias).
- MACD about to cross negatively → Warning of Continued Correction.
3. Broader Market Context:
- Volume/Market Cap Ratio 2.28% → Healthy liquidity to absorb selling.
- Exchange Inventory Decreasing (-8,000 BTC Monthly) → Ongoing Scarcity.
---
#### 🎯 Smart Trading Strategies
| Scenario | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Target | Duration |
|----------------------|---------------------|------------------|--------------------|------------------|
| Buy at Support | $105,000-$106,000 | $103,000 | $112,000 | 3-7 Days |
| Sell on the Rise | $109,500-$110,000 | $111,000 | $105,000 | Daily |
| Golden Patience | < $103,000 | $100,000 | $120,000+ | Monthly |
---
#### ⚡ Realistic Forecasts (With Probabilities)
1. Upward Bounce (60%):
- Breaking $110,000 → Heading towards $112,000-$115,000.
- Driver: Return of institutional buyers.
2. Sideways Trading (30%):
- Fluctuation between $105,000-$110,000 → Waiting for an external catalyst.
3. Sudden Drop (10%):
- Breaking $105,000 → Testing $100,000 (Major Support).
---
#### 💡 Professional Tools (Often Overlooked)
- "Adjusted SOPR" Indicator: Indicates that most current buyers entered at $95,000-$100,000 → Strong Support.
- "Stock-to-Flow" Model: Predicts $120,000 by the end of 2025 (Aligned with Current Trend).
- Capital Management:
```
50% at $106,000
30% at $104,000
20% at $102,000
```
---
#### 📌 Executive Summary
✅ For Day Traders: Take advantage of the range $105K-$110K with OCO orders.
✅ For Investors: Buy at $105K or lower is a strategic deal.
⚠️ Warning:
> "Corrections below 110K are historical buying opportunities in Bitcoin cycles!"
> "Bitcoin is like the sun: it may be temporarily obscured by clouds, but it returns brighter."
Final Outcome: $BNB
This correction is healthy and necessary for the continuation of the rise. Best buying opportunity at $105,000 or lower.
#BTC #