Gold prices fluctuate and accumulate momentum around the $1985/oz mark, with the intraday amplitude narrowing to a 0.3% extreme compression range. The dollar index strongly breaks through the key resistance level of 99.76, yet the U.S. bond market experiences a strange divergence—the 10-year yield plummets by 7.4 basis points to 3.91%, and the 30-year yield falls by 9.2 basis points to 4.23%, with alarm bells ringing in the bond market. The S&P 500 futures consolidate at a high of 5940 points with reduced volume, while the VIX fear index is suppressed in a suffocating range of 19.04, with the derivatives market hiding tens of billions of dollars in options long-short entanglements.
Tonight, global capital focuses on Nvidia's (NVDA) $43 billion revenue life-and-death line—this is not just a numbers game, but a touchstone to test the quality of the AI revolution. Institutions are betting on an epic divergence: UBS estimates the data center business could rake in $42 billion in a single quarter, while Blackwell's chip shipments surge by 270%; however, Morgan Stanley warns that a $5.5 billion inventory write-down could trigger a profit avalanche. The options market shows madness, with implied volatility for contracts expiring on May 28 soaring to 89%, and the scale of funds betting on a ±7.4% price fluctuation surpassing $7.5 billion.
Under the 25% assembly tariff pressure from the Trump administration, Nvidia launched a "Made in America" combination punch: TSMC's Arizona 4nm factory urgently produces Blackwell chips, and the capacity of the Mexican assembly line increases by 300%. However, cost pressure has emerged—the expected GAAP gross margin dropped sharply from 73% to 70.6%, and the effectiveness of the supply chain revolution will be revealed tonight.
The four tech giants (Microsoft/Google/Meta/Amazon) frantically purchased 3.5 million GB200 chips, while Oracle's $40 billion super order shocked the industry. However, the U.S. ban on H20 chips triggered a $5.5 billion inventory write-off, with revenue from the China region plummeting from 22% to 9%—the struggle between this computing power feast and inventory nightmare will determine the valuation anchor point for the next 12 months.
The mass production schedule for the Blackwell Ultra chips has been advanced to Q3 2025, and the Rubin architecture roadmap has exposed a leap to 3nm process. However, a turning point in the growth rate of cloud vendors' capital expenditures is subtly appearing—expected growth for 2026 plummets from 55% to 25%, and tonight's earnings guidance may ignite a debate on the Kitchin cycle.
The Nasdaq 100 futures performed a "dance on the knife's edge" at 19,200 points, with Nvidia's 5.98% index weight stirring the nerves of trillion-dollar funds. The technical aspect shows a typical "wedge breakout" pattern: the stock price at $135.5 stabilizes at the critical Fibonacci 61.8% level, while the MACD weekly golden cross and the RSI overbought area create a paradoxical combination of death cross. Dark pool trading shows signs—on the 27th, a single large buy order of $420 million and a sell order of $380 million clashed, completing fire reconnaissance on the eve of the institutional showdown.
Despite the consumer confidence index soaring to a four-year high of 98 points, smart money is preparing for extreme volatility: the CME NVDA volatility futures open interest surged by 83%, and market makers urgently raised the margin ratio to 35%. The market may witness history tonight—if management provides a Q2 revenue guidance of $47 billion, the stock price is expected to break the epic level of $150; if the data falls below $44 billion, the Nasdaq may face a 5% level sell-off.
If you want to know more, follow me. Recently, I've mainly been sharing internally, so friends I've just met should pay more attention.
(As of 09:30 Eastern Time, Nvidia's dark pool trading volume surpassed 12 million shares, with the premium rate fluctuating between -1.2% and +2.7%, as the long-short battle intensifies.)
