Las Vegas crypto carnival just ended, the historical curse reappears—over the past five years, the average retracement one month after the Bitcoin conference is 12%! This year, coupled with a policy vacuum period and technical changes, June-July may become the most critical turning point of the year. Three major signals reveal the undercurrents in the market, teaching you step by step how to avoid volatility traps!

Historical curse: 'Cooling period law' after the conference

Statistics for the past five years:
30 days after the 2019 conference: -11.3%
30 days after the 2021 conference: -14.7%
30 days after the 2023 conference: -9.8%

Fundamental reason:
Short-term good news is exhausted + main funds take profits + retail FOMO sentiment retreats

Rational reminder: A pullback ≠ a crash, but a healthy market turnover!

Three special turning signals in 2024

Policy transition period
The Bitcoin reserve plan for 30 U.S. states has been officially announced (good news materializing)
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been postponed until the end of July (no new expectations before September)
Smart money trend: On-chain data shows institutional wallets net transferred 32,000 BTC to exchanges in recent weeks

Technical confrontation between bulls and bears
Monthly RSI overbought area death cross (the same signal in April 2021 triggered a 30% retracement)
Key support level: 65,000 USD becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears (daily 100-day moving average defense zone)

Liquidity sensitive period
End of June traditional institutions quarterly rebalancing (pension funds/hedge funds habitually reduce high-risk assets)
EU Cup + summer causing trading volume shrinkage (average trading volume decreased by 37% in summer over the past three years)

Both offense and defense: Three types of capital response strategies

Account type sudden drop should respond to breakthroughs; for short positions below 65,000, gradually accumulate chips and stand above 72,000, pursue trend and maintain regular investment position, ignore volatility, keep weekly investment, and add 5% principal after breaking previous high; miner/node hedging ratio rises to 50%; staking rate adjusted to above 80%

Classic case:
After the 2023 conference, dollar-cost averaging investors ultimately reduced their costs by 18%, and after the bull market started, their returns doubled!

Ultimate reminder: Volatility period = wealth reshuffling period

When market sentiment shifts from FOMO to wait-and-see,
When the transfer frequency of on-chain whales suddenly increases by 300%,
What you need to do is not panic—
but to check position liquidity and capture opportunities from mispricing!

Data anchor point:

Exchange BTC stock change chart (recent net inflow increases)

Contract funding rate curve (turning from positive to negative critical point)

Whale address dormancy indicator (number of awakenings breaks six-month peak)

Hardcore reminder:
This article only provides a market observation perspective,
True winners always respect volatility and make good use of tools!


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