๐ Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of FOMC Minutes ๐ฆ๐บ๐บ๐ธ
The Aussie takes a hit as the Greenback gains momentum. Hereโs whatโs driving the market:
๐น AUD Slips Again
โ AUD/USD falls for a third straight session, trading around 0.6440, below the 9-day EMA.
๐น US Dollar Strengthens
๐ Boosted by a surge in US Consumer Confidence (98.0 in May vs. 86.0 prior) and strong Treasury yields (10Y: 4.46%, 30Y: 4.97%).
๐น Australiaโs CPI Steady but Misses the Mark
๐ April CPI rose 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.3% expected), but failed to support AUD amid bearish sentiment.
๐น RBA Turns Dovish
๐ฆ A fresh 25 bps rate cut delivered last week, with more expected.
๐ Markets now price in a 65% chance of another rate cut in July, targeting 75 bps in easing by Q1 2026.
๐น Technical Outlook
๐ป Downside Risks: Eyes on 0.6430 support (channel boundary) and 50-day EMA at 0.6381.
๐บ Upside Potential: Watch for a bounce to 0.6443 (9-day EMA), then 0.6537, with a stretch target at 0.6620.
๐ China Factor
๐ญ Aprilโs Industrial Profits rose 3% YoY, supporting broader risk sentiment but offering limited help to the AUD.
๐ Bottom Line:
The AUD remains vulnerable with looming RBA cuts and a strong USD backdrop. Unless technical levels are reclaimed, the pair could continue to slide.
