✅ $BTC – Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis Multiples Analysis (2020–2025)
This chart shows Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost-basis multiples — a powerful indicator to identify bull market tops and deep corrections.
📉 Key Zones from the Chart:
1. Deep Correction Zone:
0.65x STH Realized Price
Historical bottoms often occur here
Indicates a 35%+ drop from cost basis
2. Moderate Correction Zone:
0.75x STH Realized Price
Often seen in retracements within bull trends
Reflects a 25%+ drop
3. Speculative Peak Zone:
1.75x STH Realized Price
Commonly signals the top of euphoric rallies
Historically aligns with peak Bitcoin market tops
📈 Current Trend Insight (as of May 2025):
Bitcoin appears to be in the bullish phase, approaching or hovering near the 1.75x speculative peak zone. This suggests:
Caution for short-term entries
Likely volatility ahead
But no confirmed macro reversal yet
💡 What This Means for You (Trader/Investor):
If price touches or exceeds 1.75x, expect potential cool-off or pullback
If it dips to 0.75x or 0.65x, those are historically prime buying zones for long-term accumulation
