The big one is coming! Countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, 6,435,396,756,912 is just the starting point!

BTC has risen for eight consecutive weeks, which is extremely rare in history. From 2017 to now, there has never been a week with nine consecutive increases, so many people think that shorting now is a good opportunity. But we can't just look at historical data; we need to think about why Bitcoin can rise to a new historical high.

Once a trend is formed, it will not easily come to an end. If Bitcoin really enters an upward cycle, it could continue to rise for 100 days. Starting from April 8, 100 days later will be July 12. In the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, but the specific timing is uncertain. Therefore, this surge in Bitcoin may be waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in July.

In the long term, what the market is really betting on is the crisis of the dollar system. Central banks around the world are hoarding gold, while the US government is promoting stablecoins and Bitcoin as reserve assets. Capital is also using Bitcoin to hedge against dollar risk. Interest rate cuts, stablecoin expansion, and dollar depreciation will all drive up Bitcoin's price. However, this process will not end in 2025 but will continue until 2028 (the end of Bitcoin's next halving cycle).

So in the short term, we are looking at whether Bitcoin can break through $120,000; in the medium term, whether there will be an interest rate cut in July and whether it can reach $150,000 this year; and in the long term, whether Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 or even $1,000,000 before 2028, surpassing the market value of gold.

Shorting now carries a high risk; market sentiment, institutional funds, and policy changes could lead to short squeezes. It's better to focus on key points and follow the trend.

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