News: Three major events set the direction

ETF life and death situation: The US SEC postponed the approval of the Ethereum ETF to July, but BlackRock suddenly submitted a revised plan. Large institutions openly submitted a plan to fight to the death. The market expects a 50% approval rate. If it passes, the stock will soar, and if it fails, the stock will crash.

Regulatory backlash: US lawmakers proposed to classify ETH as a security, which would trigger a panic of exchanges delisting it once implemented. However, Coinbase made a strong statement that it would "firmly maintain ETH spot trading", and the short-term bearish sentiment has been partially digested.

Ecological explosion: Optimism spent $160 million to subsidize developers, Uniswap's mobile transaction volume increased by 300%, the Layer2 war intensified, and real demand supported the bottom of ETH's value.

Technical analysis: Long and short battle at 2600 mark

Key position: Currently 2621 is just at the 4-hour Bollinger middle track (2600), and the long and short tug-of-war is obvious. 2738 above is the high point pressure of this week, and the huge trading area of ​​2150 below is the iron bottom.

MACD secret: Death cross state but green column shortening, short weakening signal! If DIF (99.8) turns tonight, a violent rebound may be triggered at any time.

Whale movements: On-chain monitoring shows that a certain address has accumulated 120,000 ETH in the 2500-2600 range for three consecutive days, and the main force may be preparing for a change in the market.

Operation Summary

Short-term: Stand firm at 2650 and buy lightly, target 2730, stop loss if it falls below 2580, buy the bottom in batches if it falls sharply to around 2400, stop loss if it breaks 2350
Mid-term ambush: Place orders in the 2150-2200 range to layout spot, betting on the second wave of ETF speculation
Risk warning: It is recommended to reduce positions before the release of CPI data on Wednesday to avoid black swans$ETH

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