Understanding the Three Phases of Every Major Crypto Runner

After surviving several market cycles and spending years in the trenches, I’ve noticed a consistent pattern that most successful tokens follow—a three-phase journey that separates the hype from the real players.

Phase 1: The Launch Hype

Every major runner starts with a small, attention-grabbing pump. This is typically driven by excitement and speculation around the project’s debut. Many retail investors get overly bullish here, prematurely calling it “the next big thing.” But in reality, this stage is just the beginning—and it’s what comes next that really tests a project’s potential.

Phase 2: The Harsh Reality Check

Almost without exception, these early pumps are followed by brutal corrections—often 90% or more—followed by extended periods of low-volume consolidation. This is where many lose faith and exit. But historically, it’s also the phase where truly resilient projects begin to mature.

  • $SHIB : Crashed over 90% after launch, then consolidated quietly before exploding in the memestock mania.

  • $BONK : Same story—90%+ correction, months of silence, then an unexpected surge.

  • SPX: Also saw a 90%+ drawdown, only to rally massively after Murad’s interest put it back on the map.

This isn’t a coincidence—it’s a rite of passage. Organic, long-term winners almost always go through this tough middle phase before hitting mainstream traction.

Phase 3: The “Out of Nowhere” Rally

After months of consolidation, these projects suddenly explode. Sometimes it’s triggered by a catalyst (a viral tweet, a big investor, or macro narrative), and other times, the pump just happens. But the real point is: the groundwork was laid during that quiet consolidation period.

While everyone chases the catalyst, they often miss the bigger picture—it’s the time spent grinding through Phase 2 that sets the stage for liftoff.

Why Most People Get It Wrong

Today, new investors jump in during Phase 3 of other coins and expect instant 100x results from anything with a catchy narrative. They assume if something doesn’t pump right away, it’s a “dead coin” or a “forced narrative.”

That’s not how this game works.

Success in crypto takes conviction. You need to be able to hold through the boring phases, understand where a project is in its lifecycle, and have the patience to wait it out.

If you’re always looking for instant moonshots, you’ll likely miss the real runners before they ever break out.