The cryptocurrency market has recently seen a remarkable development represented by Ethereum (ETH) regaining a pivotal technical level, which has always been an indicator for the start of historical upward waves. This level, known as the middle line of the Gaussian channel on the semi-monthly chart, currently stands at around $2,600 and is considered one of the strongest long-term momentum indicators.
Historically, breaking through this level has been accompanied by price explosions. In 2020 and 2021, ETH rose from around $400 to over $4,800 after surpassing it. The trend repeated itself in late 2023, where it rose from below $1,500 to touch the $4,000 mark in just one year. Today, technical indicators suggest that the next resistance is at $3,200, and if successfully surpassed, the currency may test the previous peak at $4,100 as July 2025 approaches. But why all this interest?
The answer is simple: Ethereum leads alternative currencies.
According to the analyst known as "Moustache", the breakout of ETH at this level in July 2020 pushed the market cap of alternative currencies (excluding ETH) to rise by 1,400% over one year. The scenario partially repeated itself after the November 2023 breakout, where the market witnessed a growth exceeding 200% in the following year. This data coincides with the post-halving cycle of Bitcoin. In both 2017 and 2021, about 400 days after the halving, Bitcoin dominance sharply declined, opening the door for an alternative currency season. As the same time frame approaches since the April 2024 halving, the chances of this scenario repeating in the next 100 days increase. Analyst "Wimar X" predicts a jump in the market cap of alternative currencies to reach $15 trillion if this historical cycle repeats.
But... are there risks? Absolutely. Although technical analysis appears supportive, data from Glassnode indicates that about $123 billion of the market cap of ETH is owned by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500. This means that any drop below these levels could put them in the loss zone, potentially leading to emotional selling waves that increase market volatility. Summary:
We are facing a critical technical moment that could define the market landscape in the second half of 2025. If Ethereum maintains its momentum and breaks through the next resistance, we may witness a new launch of the alternative currency season. However, investors must remain aware of the sensitivity of the technical situation, especially with the existence of critical buying areas that could turn into pressure points.
Editorial note:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. All financial decisions should be made based on personal research and an understanding of market risks.