At present, Bitcoin has returned to its previous high position, and is still moving up slowly along the trend line. When it fell back to more than 70,000 in the early stage, it quickly rebounded to a new high.
Looking back at the three bull-bear cycles in the past 10 years, the two long-term trend lines still have a certain reference value.
Assuming that it is now in the "double top" stage at the monthly level (of course, it may also rise a little higher), the real bottom support is 30,000-40,000.
But if you really want to get to that step, the process will not be fast or easy.
Looking at the Nasdaq, it has also rebounded a lot. If it continues to set a new high, it will be a bit incredible.
On the one hand, there is the emotional bubble at the end of the technology bull market, and on the other hand, there is the reality that the valuation of crypto assets is already high.
Judging from the overall situation, I personally think that the probability of the top appearing here is increasing.
You can also refer to the various logics listed in the top article "Cash is King" on Weibo. https://weibo.com/ttarticle/x/m/show#/id=2309405162004263600439&_wb_client_=1
Regarding other coins, whether from the overall market value or valuation, most of them are still at a relatively high position. To be honest, it is still unrealistic to expect a "big explosion" in the cottage season at this stage. (Even if the big cake continues to rise, it is difficult)
At present, the news every day is almost all positive, but the price has been difficult to give an unexpected feedback.
If even "good news can't rise", it is actually a certain signal.
After the approval of the US Bitcoin ETF, the previous data showed that about 80% of traditional market retail investors participated. If the retail investors like the "inverted pyramid increase position" gameplay, they will start to enter the market from $50,000, first test the water with a small position, and then continue to increase their positions after tasting the sweetness, and finally see all kinds of good news at $100,000 and go all in at once🤔?
I'm thinking. Are retail investors in the US stock market so lucky? A big bull market will take off as soon as they buy?
What about Chinese retail investors? They hit the top as soon as they bought, and they were stuck for four years? $BTC
To be honest, I don't believe it.
Human nature is the same, greed and FOMO have no nationality.
(The above is only my personal opinion, not a belief in air force)
Starting from 2023, I was very bad. I sold more than 70,000 pie with a spot profit of 15,000, and then sold my concubines and copycats at basically all the high points.
I am earning interest with a full hand of cash and empty position financial management.
(Please refer to it with caution, thank you for your cooperation)
