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Is a Fed Rate Cut Really on the Horizon? The Reality Might Surprise You

As the Federal Reserve’s June 18 meeting approaches, the market overwhelmingly anticipates that interest rates will remain unchanged—current projections place that probability at around 71%. Despite growing investor hopes, key policymakers like John Williams and Alberto Musalem continue to stress caution. Persistent inflation, ongoing trade frictions, and fiscal uncertainties are all complicating the outlook.

Earlier this year, markets had priced in three rate cuts for 2025. That forecast has now been dialed back to two potential cuts, possibly starting as soon as September. But the Fed has made one thing clear: rate cuts won’t come easy. Any shift in policy will be firmly grounded in clear and consistent improvements in economic data.

Bottom line? While rate cuts may be inching closer, significant uncertainties still lie ahead. Investors should stay alert and avoid getting swept up by early optimism.

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