A new study from Google's quantum research team has sent a strong warning signal to the crypto community: future quantum computers could break RSA encryption – the security foundation not only for banks but also for Bitcoin wallets – with 20 times fewer quantum resources than previously estimated.
Google drastically reduces qubit requirements to break RSA
Craig Gidney, a quantum researcher at Google, stated in a new study that:
"We once predicted that it would take 20 million qubits to break 2048-bit RSA in 8 hours. Now, it only requires less than 1 million qubits and less than a week."
RSA is a very popular encryption system, once considered nearly unbreakable in practice. However, progress from #Google shows that when quantum computers become powerful enough, they can completely overcome this barrier – posing a risk to similar security systems like Bitcoin.
What risks does Bitcoin face?
Bitcoin does not use RSA, but relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which has a similar mathematical principle to RSA. Although #ECC uses a 256-bit key – stronger than RSA – this is not enough to be reassuring, as quantum computers using Shor's algorithm could break ECC when they have enough power.
What is concerning is that some research groups, like Project 11, have been experimenting with breaking Bitcoin encryption using quantum technology. They have offered a reward of nearly $85,000 for anyone who can break a simplified version of the Bitcoin key using a quantum machine. Although the experiments are on a small scale (1–25 bits), the speed of progress is noteworthy.
How does Google reduce quantum requirements?
Google achieved this breakthrough by:
Better algorithms: Doubling the speed of heavy calculations in encryption (modular exponentiation).
Improved error correction: Increasing the density of logical qubits with a new error correction layer.
"Magic state cultivation": Helps quantum components become more stable and efficient, saving computational resources.
All these improvements significantly reduce the hardware requirements for quantum attacks.
The danger lies not only in the future
Although the prospect of quantum machines being powerful enough to break encryption is still a future scenario (currently the most powerful machine – IBM's Condor – has only achieved 1,121 qubits), the real risk lies in the fact that adversaries may be collecting encrypted data from now to decode later when quantum technology is ready.
Therefore, Google has begun encrypting traffic on Chrome and internal systems using post-quantum encryption standards like ML-KEM.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has also announced post-quantum encryption standards, recommending the replacement of old systems before 2030. However, Google believes this deadline may need to be moved up.
The crypto community needs to prepare early
Many parties in the blockchain industry have started to take action:
Solana implements quantum-resistant vaults based on hash signatures.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, proposed hard forks of current blockchains to counter quantum threats.
Although it has not reached the level of panic, preparing for a post-quantum future is something that cannot be delayed, especially for users holding long-term crypto assets.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market always carries many technical and security risks. Technological developments such as quantum computers could create unexpected major changes. Investors need to stay updated on information and equip themselves with knowledge about security to protect their digital assets.