Sometimes one chart says more than a hundred posts, and right now, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is that chart.
Why does Bitcoin dominance matter? (Tip: Google it yourself, the term is 'Bitcoin dominance chart' or 'BTC.D', and ideally open it on TradingView for a real-time view. Also worth checking: the 'Altcoin Season Index', a helpful data-driven tool to understand whether capital rotation is actually happening. No need to rely on screenshots or third-party summaries.)
BTC.D moves slowly, but it tells you what the market dares to touch. When it climbs, it’s Bitcoin or nothing. When it slips, the crowd gets bolder, ETH, SOL, and whatever else is within reach.
Historically, sharp drops in BTC dominance have come before altseasons. You saw it in early 2017, again in mid-2021, moments when Bitcoin paused after big runs, and capital spilled outward. But those periods had something else too: fresh retail, easy narratives, and little regulatory drag.
Right now? We’re drifting sideways. It’s not a bear, not a bull, just capital sloshing between narratives. Bitcoin pumps, stalls, and altcoins keep blinking, waiting for their turn that never really comes.
And that’s the real point. Altseason isn’t just a string of green candles. It’s a structural shift, a flood from BTC and ETH into the broader field. It only happens when stories align, new money enters, and momentum stays. None of that’s on the table.
Look at the dominance chart, Bitcoin has held its ground and even grown its share through early 2025. Two other charts worth tracking: ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC, especially if you want to understand where speculative alt activity starts. When Ethereum gains on Bitcoin, it usually hints at rising risk appetite. But ETH/BTC is stuck near 0.0234, a weak spot by historical standards. SOL/BTC hovers around 0.0016, which is just enough to keep Solana’s memecoin machine alive, but not enough to lift the whole sector. These aren’t just ratios, they’re signals: where energy goes, where culture brews, where retail gathers. When ETH and SOL rise against BTC, altcoins usually follow — and when they don’t, it means the market’s staying home.
The ETH/BTC ratio has struggled all year. Solana gets flashes of life, but nothing sustained. The rest? Fading volume, fading memory, or just farm-and-dump noise.
Let’s stop pretending altseason is a calendar event. 2017 and 2021 had something we don’t: low caps, loose rules, and attention focused like a laser. Now the industry’s grown, but the magic got spread too thin.
Could it return? Sure, at some point. But not this half — and probably not this year, unless something breaks hard: on-chain, geopolitical, or structural.
So pick your convictions carefully, clear the static from your signal, and stop expecting a season just because it happened once.
Sometimes there’s no season, just open cycles that never resolve.