After experiencing a month-long rise, Dogecoin is now pulling back. On May 11, Dogecoin briefly reached an intraday high of $0.259, after which momentum weakened. Currently, the meme coin is trading near $0.228, with a network market capitalization of approximately $34 billion, down 69% from its peak in 2021.
From a purely statistical perspective, the pullback is not large: Dogecoin is still up about 35% from the bottom of $0.164 at the beginning of May, but the lower high pattern that has emerged since mid-month has traders more focused on whether the impulse from April to May was corrective or impulsive.
Is Dogecoin's price about to plummet?
Technical analyst More Crypto Online pointed out in his latest YouTube briefing that the structure of this rise "is like many other cryptocurrency charts, with a three-wave rebound at Friday's volatility peak," lacking the five-wave momentum typically needed to sustain upward momentum, and has already reversed into what looks like a "mini five-wave decline."
The Elliottician stated: "Dogecoin, like many other cryptocurrency charts, experienced three waves of increase, ultimately peaking in volatility on Friday," he told viewers at the beginning of the video, emphasizing that the rise from Dogecoin's low on April 26 "is fundamentally unconvincing." His core argument is that Dogecoin surged from $0.164 to an intraday high of $0.259 on May 11 but never formed the trend-maintaining structure that Elliott Wave Theory prescribes.
Five-wave structure.
Conversely, the price movement has begun what he refers to as a "mini five-wave decline," indicating that the rise from April to May is likely just the B wave of a larger ABC correction. "Once the price breaks below the red dashed line at $0.21, the scenario for a larger correction with the yellow dashed line is confirmed," he said, adding that there is currently no data on the chart to overturn this viewpoint.
The scenario envisions an extended C wave unfolding into five sub-waves, with the target locked on the 38.2%-78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels formed during the April rebound. In simple numbers, this means that the price will reach between $0.199 and $0.183 in the coming trading days.
"Testing the range of $0.199 to $0.183 in the coming trading days seems to be a likely outcome," More Crypto Online stated. "We have already experienced a five-wave decline since yesterday's peak, so we must be prepared for a rebound that may only be a correction, followed by a substantial decline in the third wave."
The roadmap leaves room for a brief recovery wave—what he calls the second wave of C—to explore the initial resistance levels between $0.233 and $0.247. However, this analyst warns that any rebound should remain "only corrective"; a decisive breakout above $0.247 cents in the hourly closing price is needed to revive the bullish "orange" indicator, thereby extending the previous rally one last time.
He acknowledged: "Any decisive breakthrough above $0.247 could mean we are in an extension of an uptrend," but quickly added that this outcome "would again be invalidated by a drop below the red dashed line."
The macro environment is unfavorable for Dogecoin. With U.S. Treasury yields consistently hitting quarterly highs and the dominance of Fitcoin rising, the liquidity of high-beta altcoins has dried up. Even the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust, which helped institutional funds flow into Dogecoin earlier this year when it debuted in January, failed to stop the outflow of marginal tokens during the heightened risk aversion in May.
From a market structure perspective, the current fate of the token depends on whether the bulls can hold the pivot point of $0.21 mentioned in the analysis. If the daily closing price falls below this level, the bears will have reason to push towards $0.19, while the analyst acknowledges that a breakout above $0.247 cents is the only progress that could "reduce the downside potential."
As of the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.228.
