The Night Before Powell's Speech: A Silent Game is About to Begin
Today (2:40 PM New York time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a public speech. This speech seems ordinary, but it actually hides secrets; a single sentence could trigger significant market volatility.
Why is this speech so critical?
The current market is in a highly sensitive state:
- If Powell signals "inflation is slowing," asset prices may experience a short-term rebound;
- If he emphasizes "policies still need to tighten," risk assets may face downward pressure;
- Any hint about the "long-term interest rate path" could directly determine the flow of funds.
Three Key Observation Points
1. Inflation Statements
- If he mentions "inflation has peaked" or "declining trend is clear," market bulls may collectively breathe a sigh of relief;
- If he emphasizes "core data remains sticky," bearish momentum may accelerate.
2. Policy Stance
- The appearance of keywords like "easing" or "policy flexibility" may ignite risk appetite;
- Vague statements like "remain patient" or "data-dependent" may exacerbate market divergence.
3. Economic Expectations
- Optimistic/pessimistic assessments of the job market or consumer confidence will directly affect the market's judgment on a "soft landing" or "hard landing."
Practical Suggestions
1. Wait for Confirmation Signals
- Do not attempt to preemptively react to the first wave of responses; initial market volatility may be accompanied by noise;
- Focus on the price movements of key assets within 30 minutes after the speech before deciding whether to get involved.
2. Strict Stop-Losses
- Current market sentiment is fragile; any unexpected statements could trigger a chain reaction;
- Avoid excessive leverage and maintain sufficient safety margins.
3. Avoid Subjective Speculation
- Powell's wording is often meticulously crafted; instead of guessing intentions, observe the market's actual response;
- Maintain strategic flexibility and be ready to respond to different scenarios.
In Conclusion
This speech is not a prediction game, but a test of execution. The market always rewards those who are calm, rational, and well-prepared.
At 2:40 PM New York time, the world's attention is focused—are you ready to face this silent storm? #加密市场反弹 #巨鲸JamesWynn动态