According to Jinshi data reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that significant changes in U.S. trade and immigration policy have brought uncertainty to the Fed's potential interest rate actions before September, as the Trump administration continues tariff negotiations with many countries. Kashkari said on Monday, "Anything is possible, but will the situation be clear enough by September? I'm not sure right now. We need to see what the data says and how the negotiations progress."
He added that if the U.S. and other countries reach a trade agreement in the coming months, "this should provide a lot of the clarity we are looking for." The broadly imposed tariffs are believed to have pushed up U.S. inflation, while dragging down economic growth due to reduced corporate investment and households controlling spending. Kashkari and other central bank officials, including Goolsbee, stated that the threshold for rate cuts in the short term remains quite high. Kashkari stated, "This uncertainty may put pressure on economic activity and pose challenges for us, as we are unsure how things will unfold, and therefore also uncertain about the direction of monetary policy."