Really profitable rolling positions compress risk to the extreme using the ** counterintuitive position control method.
I. The death red line of the initial position (90% of people fall here). The initial position of 1000U strictly prohibits exceeding 50U (5%), but 95% of people can't help but open 100U directly.
The first order must complete two actions:
Set a 0.8% price range stop-loss (I can download the specific algorithm table).
Pre-embed 3 levels of replenishment orders in the trading pair (price intervals should be calculated in conjunction with volatility).
II. Volatility tearing trading method.
When the 4-hour volatility breaks the historical average of 200% (a common phenomenon for SOL ecosystem coins in 2024), activate the 'three-stage fission increase': initial position 50U (5%).
If you have any questions about floating y5, feel free to ask or directly follow 168. Add 150U to the position when at 0% (total position 20%).
Add 450U when breaking previous highs (total position 65%).
The third position must be combined with on-chain chip concentration indicators; the identification method needs to be explained separately.
III. Fatal stop-loss discipline.
All rolling positions and liquidation stem from 'not leaving when you should'. My life-saving rule:
When overall y profit reaches 300%, forcibly withdraw this j + 50% profit.
- Activate the 'moving strangulation line' for remaining positions: every 10% increase, move the stop-loss line up by 7% (specific parameter table updated). Set automatic take-profit between 1-3 AM.
The skill lies in mastering the intrinsic meaning of one or two technical indicators and interpreting the inherent rules of the crypto world from them.
It organically combines with operational strategies, becoming a tool for speculation in the crypto world.
Combining with the main force's large orders is the optimal choice for grasping the capital control of the dealer. Whether buying or selling, it must ultimately reflect on the market. As long as there are orders and transactions, we can monitor them, so everyone must make good use of these tools!
From novice to expert - a hands-on guide to building a cryptocurrency trading system.
1. Most market evolutions will go through the processes of budding, development, prosperity, exhaustion, and trend shifting.
If 'trend' is a typical right-side trade, following the change after a trend shift, then 'structure' is a typical left-side trade. It qualitatively defines speed as a kind of potential energy and serves as a quantitative standard from prosperity to decline. Our tracking and research of 'structure' aims to capture the turning point of the trend, serving the trend in a more detailed way.
2. Before the structure forms, a state must first occur: dulling.
Dulling is a necessary path for the formation of structures. So what is dulling? To put it bluntly, it is the failure to exhibit the expected state and appearing out of sync. When the price creates a new low, and the MACD's DIF value does not create a new low, and two negative foot lines appear, it is determined to be dulling. When dulling occurs, at the moment the DIF turns, the structure is formed. Dulling is a state, while structure formation is a moment.
3. Structures are divided into bottom structures and top structures.
The previous section used the bottom structure as an example, while the opposite would be the top structure. In two waves of the same direction, there must be at least two or more counter-angle lines separating them. By observing changes in momentum, we can track and determine the turning point of speed from prosperity to decline. It must be noted that all prices should be based on the closing price of the cycle; only after the cycle is completed can the closing price be finalized, and the corresponding indicator values will also be finalized.
4. Structural theory applies to different time cycles.
From the daily line and weekly line to as small as the 15-minute line and 1-minute line. Different cycles correspond to different levels, and the larger the cycle level, the greater the strength and influence time generated after the structure forms. Large cycles restrain small cycles, and small cycles obey large cycles. If 'cycle resonance' occurs, meaning multiple cycles show structure formation, then the strength and influence time will be higher, which is not common.
5. From the perspective of quantitative standards, the trading standard of the 'trend channel' is clear at a glance; the upper and lower track prices of the channel are visible to the naked eye daily. The trading standard of 'structure' is also very clear, which is the moment when the DIF turns after dulling and when the structure is formed.
In the past two months, I conducted a structural analysis of Bitcoin over the past year. Over the year, a bottom structure has appeared once at the daily level, while a top structure has appeared twice, precisely corresponding to the lowest and two highest points.
6. Situations with a 100% success rate like this are certainly not normal.
Not every important high and low point will accompany the formation of a structure, nor will every structure formation necessarily lead to a trend reversal. It only means that when a structure forms, there is a probabilistic advantage in trading. If the structure ultimately fails and the market moves in a low-probability direction, corrections must be made in time. The essence of trading is to bet in high-probability areas and guard against low-probability risks.
7. So, how to correct mistakes?
Sometimes the market may disappear after the structure (bottom or top) forms, then continue to dull, and then form a new structure again, leading to a tug-of-war. However, remember one point: the position bought in when the structure forms, if the market moves in the low-probability opposite direction, corrections must be made (stop-loss or buy back), and the quantitative standard for correction is: dulling disappears. That is, the DIF value is below (or above) the leading value.
8. Operating solely based on the 'trend channel' can still yield big profits, as the cryptocurrency market has short-term fluctuations with large single-sided amplitudes.
However, operating solely based on 'structure' would lead to much poorer results. Although it has a relatively high success rate, the triggering frequency at the daily level is very low. If a smaller time frame is used, the effectiveness would drop significantly. More importantly, 'structure' only provides a quantitative standard for buying (selling) + a quantitative standard for corrections, without forming a closed-loop trading system.
9. For example, if you buy in a bottom structure, but it doesn't meet the selling criteria, because not every high point will show a top structure. It's likely that what you are waiting for is not a top structure, but another bottom structure after a pullback. What should you do? You might fall into the trap of emotional trading.
Therefore, not only should buying have a quantitative standard, but selling must also have a quantitative standard. Both buying and selling should have laws to follow, to be considered a mature and stable trading system.
10. Therefore, the characteristics of 'structure' are very distinct; using it alone cannot bring out its maximum effect. Only by using it in conjunction with 'trend' can we leverage strengths and avoid weaknesses, achieving an effect of 1 + 1 > 2.
In my view, 'trend' and 'structure' are a perfect match. They lay the foundation of the trading system, and the rest is simply to add position management strategies and other indicators as support based on them.
