• Fed officials deliver multiple speeches all week.

  • U.S. markets closed on Monday, May 26, 2025.

  • FOMC minutes release scheduled for Wednesday.

  • U.S. Q1 GDP second estimate out on Thursday.

  • April PCE inflation data drops on Friday.

#FederalReserve #FOMCMinutes #GDPGrowth #PCEInflation

A packed week of economic events is set to drive market movements. Federal Reserve officials will deliver multiple speeches throughout the week, starting Monday. The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, May 26, 2025, for Memorial Day.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will release its latest meeting minutes. These minutes detail the Fed’s discussions on monetary policy and economic outlook, often influencing investor expectations.

Thursday brings the second estimate of the U.S. Q1 GDP growth rate. A Commerce Department report previously indicated a 0.3% annualized decline in GDP for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022. This contraction was attributed to a surge in imports early in President Donald Trump’s second term, amid a trade war.

The initial GDP report highlighted mixed signals for the Fed. Negative growth could prompt considerations of interest rate cuts, but persistent inflation might delay such actions. Imports, which subtract from GDP, drove the decline, though the trend may reverse in future quarters.

Markets are anticipating four rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a potential cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to pricing data from the CME FedWatch Tool. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported a 0.9% rise in the employment cost index for Q1, aligning with expectations.

Friday marks the release of the April Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data. The PCE index, a key inflation gauge for the Fed, measures price changes for goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. It captures inflation trends across a broad range of expenses.

The PCE data release follows a week of Fed speeches, which could provide clues on the central bank’s stance. Persistent inflation might lead to tighter policy, while softer data could fuel expectations of a dovish shift.

Volatility Expected in Equities and Crypto Markets

If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or inflation remains elevated, risk-off sentiment might dominate. This could reduce liquidity in markets, affecting assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A tougher policy outlook might lead to downward pressure on risk assets.

Conversely, a dovish tone from the Fed or lower-than-expected inflation could trigger a risk-on rally. Such a scenario might lead to short-term gains in equities and crypto markets, as investors chase upside momentum.