Ethereum

  • Ethereum's Buy/Sell Delta hints at a trend shift as sell pressure weakens and historical signals suggest base formation is underway.

  • ETH's liquidation heatmap shows heavy upside exposure, with potential for cascading longs if price breaks the $3,000 resistance.

  • Risk metrics rebound as Ethereum reclaims $2,800, signaling renewed investor confidence despite muted Sharpe performance.

Ethereum faces heightened sell-side dominance, but fresh indicators suggest a potential reversal. While price action remains subdued, buy/sell pressure metrics and liquidation levels map a volatile yet opportunity-laden path.

Buy/Sell Delta Points Toward Imminent Price Reversal

The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta for ETHUSDT remains negative but shows signs of a turning tide.“The market has turned its back on Ethereum... but the data tells a different story,” stated Alphractal in an update. The Delta, measured over 90 days, stands at -24.62, revealing dominant sell pressure but improving buy momentum.

Historical Delta swings have marked Ethereum’s macro phases, including deep red readings below -300 during 2018’s crash and similar conditions in mid-2021. Current levels are nowhere near those extremes, signaling limited downside continuation. With accumulated buy pressure building beneath, buyers may regain footing in the coming weeks.

Past cycles show that when selling pressure decelerates at these levels, price tends to stabilize before a breakout. According to long-term indicators, rising green phases often coincide with accumulation, even during muted price action. The current Delta level may be the early formation of such a base.

Liquidation Heatmaps Reveal Loaded Upside Risk

The ETH Aggregated Liquidation Levels Heatmap underscores the looming volatility. According to a report by Alphractal, ETH saw dense long liquidations above $3,000, reaching peak clusters between $3,200 and $3,800. Liquidation levels above $80B in long exposure dominate the upper heatmap zones.

In contrast, short liquidation clusters between $1,500 and $2,000 remain under $2B, confirming limited short-side pressure. This imbalance highlights a highly leveraged long market vulnerable to sharp liquidations upon upward price movement.

Recent movements in the sector have reshaped priorities as ETH climbs toward $2,800. If the price breaks above $3,000, a cascade of liquidation events may trigger. These triggers could drive accelerated volatility, fueled by trapped long positions.

Sharpe Ratio and Risk Metrics Track ETH Sentiment Shift

Ethereum’s Sharpe Ratio now sits slightly below zero after dipping from early 2025 highs. This shift reflects declining risk-adjusted performance as ETH corrected from $3,800 to near $2,200. Historical peaks above 0.5 in 2021 remain unmatched, indicating a cooling risk environment.

Simultaneously, other market indicators suggest a different trend. Ethereum’s Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) has climbed to 0.3969, reflecting moderate capital pressure. The metric has rebounded from early 2025’s deep blue zone, historically associated with bottoming activity.

NRM peaks above 0.9 previously aligned with Ethereum’s all-time high near $4,800. Its current rise from early-year lows shows growing investor confidence. This aligns with Ethereum’s climb back above $2,800, positioning risk appetite for another phase of directional momentum.

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